The European Central Bank (ECB) looks set to ring in the new year with interest rates on hold, but will have its work cut out for it this year, analysts say.
The ECB’s policy-setting governing council is scheduled to hold its first meeting of this year on Thursday, but central bank watchers are not projecting any new measures just yet after a surprise rate cut in November last year.
“The ECB’s governing council appears unlikely to make any substantive policy changes at its first policy meeting of the year,” Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics said.
“But the ongoing combination of weak economic growth, a damagingly strong currency and poor liquidity conditions will maintain the pressure on the central bank to take further action to support the region’s fragile economic recovery in 2014,” he said.
SURPRISE MOVE
The ECB took markets by surprise in November and pared back its central “refi” refinancing rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a record low of 0.25 percent.
The reason behind the move was an expectation that the single currency area is facing a prolonged period of very low inflation.
Area-wide inflation picked up fractionally in November, but analysts believe that does not sound the all-clear and the ECB may have to take further action again at some point.
There is “no immediate need to act,” Commerzbank economist Michael Schubert said.
“ECB council members signaled in recent weeks that they currently see no need for further measures,” he said.
“Against this backdrop we expect that ECB President Mario Draghi will merely emphasize once again that the ECB is ready to act,” Schubert said.
In addition to changing interest rates, the ECB could pump more liquidity into the financial system to get credit flowing again between banks and businesses, crucial if any economic upturn is to be sustained.
DECLINING LOAN RATE
For the moment, loans to businesses in the euro area are continuing to decline, new ECB data showed on Friday.
Private sector loans dropped by 2.3 percent in November in a year-on-year comparison, after already contracting by 2.2 percent in October, the ECB calculated.
The ECB already pumped more than 1 trillion euros (US$1.3 trillion) into the banking system at the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012 to avert a potentially disastrous credit crunch.
However, the banks preferred to use the ultracheap cash to buy up sovereign bonds rather than lend it on to businesses and the ECB is considering ways of channeling the cash directly to businesses if it decides to open the liquidity gates once again.
CREDIT CRUNCH?
“The governing council obviously agrees that with possible further steps the ECB wants to provide targeted support to the real economy. But there seem to be differences of opinion as to what is the most effective way to reach this target,” Loynes said.
London-based Berenberg Bank chief economist Holger Schmieding said the weak credit data did suggest a possible credit crunch.
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