The nation’s top five contract laptop makers will post higher monthly shipment growth figures for last month prior to the release of Microsoft Corp’s new Windows 8 operating system, Deutsche Bank AG said in a note to clients last week.
The top five notebook original design manufacturers (ODMs) are Quanta Computer Inc (廣達), Compal Electronics Inc (仁寶), Wistron Corp (緯創), Pegatron Corp (和碩) and Inventec Corp (英業達).
Deutsche Bank said in the note on Thursday that notebook shipments by the five firms might have grown by 30 percent month-on-month last month due to inventory refill before the Oct. 26 launch of touchscreen Windows 8 notebooks.
SURVEY
However, a survey carried out by the bank also showed that notebook orders are to remain weak in the fourth quarter, as it might take time for consumers to warm up to the new Windows 8 products.
“We take the view that the Windows 8 notebook launch could lead to stabilized notebook volume, although it might not reverse the muted notebook growth trend in the industry,” Ivy Lee (李怡璿), a Taipei-based Deutsche Bank analyst, said in the note.
For Asian notebook PC makers, Lee said Taiwan’s Asustek Computer Inc (華碩) and China’s Lenovo Group Ltd (聯想) could continuously outgrow the market in the third quarter on the back of market share gains and new product launches.
She predicted that Asustek’s and Lenovo’s third-quarter sales will increase by 12 percent and 8 percent respectively from the second quarter, while Taiwanese maker Acer Inc’s (宏碁) sales will decline 2 percent sequentially due to a product transition period.
UPWARD REVISION
Separately, Morgan Stanley revised upward its forecast for monthly shipment growth of the top five notebook ODMs for last month to 26 percent, or 14.9 million units.
The upward revision was attributed to improved inventory restocking for Windows 8 models and China’s “Golden Week” holiday early this month, the brokerage said in a report.
SUSTAINABILITY
Morgan Stanley said the strength of Windows 8 notebook shipments to distributors should be sustained for both last and this month, but added that a better picture of the retail conditions for the new products might not be noticeable until next month.
The brokerage forecast that the top five ODMs’ notebook shipments during the July to last month period will dip 2 percent from the second quarter to 39 million units, compared with its prior estimate of a 3 percent.
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