LCD panel prices are expected to hold steady this quarter as US buyers replenish inventory ahead of the Christmas shopping season, paving the way for a rebound in the second quarter of next year, a US market research house said yesterday.
Breaking an eight-month downtrend, prices for LCD panels used in computer monitors and televisions started stabilizing early this month as inventories fell to a healthy level of about six to eight weeks, according to DisplaySearch.
“We are seeing more signs showing that the seasonal demand is likely to come, to the relief of most panel makers,” DisplaySearch vice president David Hsieh (謝勤益) told reporters.
“Inventories of panels used in LCD monitors, notebooks and TVs have fallen to a quite low level at the moment. What we need now is a boost to consumer confidence,” Hsieh said.
In the US, TV sales grew 5 to 10 percent annually in recent weeks, a reversal of stagnant demand this time last year, Hsieh said.
However, TV demand from developed markets in Europe remained in the doldrums, as the region’s sovereign debt woes cut private consumption, he added.
Prices for 32-inch mainstream LCD panels were unchanged at US$125 per unit in the first half of this month, compared with two weeks ago, after plummeting about 23 percent from US$162 in February on sluggish TV and PC demand and oversupply, according to DisplaySearch’s statistics.
“After a slack first quarter [next year] ... [we are] likely to see a price rebound in the second quarter” as customers stock up for demand in the third quarter, Hsieh said.
However, it was difficult to foresee when LCD-panel makers, especially local manufacturers, would start to make a profit again, he said.
One bright spot would be that Japanese TV maker Panasonic Corp is expected to greatly increase panel orders to Taiwanese suppliers, Hsieh said, after it decided to shut down two of its Japanese TV panel factories as part of effort to turn around its TV business.
Early this month, Panasonic warned that it would swing into a loss of ￥420 billion (US$5.38 billion) for the fiscal year ending March.
The nation’s two largest panel makers — Chimei Innolux Corp (奇美電子) and AU Optronics Corp (友達光電) — would be the biggest beneficiaries, since they are estimated to supply 28 percent and 18 percent respectively of Panasonic’s panel demand next year, up from 3 percent and 1 percent this year, according to DisplaySearch’s forecast.
Global TV shipments are expected to grow 7.57 percent to 206 million units this year from 191.5 million units last year. Shipments are forecast to grow faster by 10 percent to roughly 227 million units next year, largely supported by strong growth from emerging markets, DisplaySearch said.
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