The landscape for the green energy industry will grow more rugged as oversupply continues to depress prices and a brutal shakeout spreads from the West to China, major Taiwanese solar cell makers said yesterday.
Motech Industries Inc (茂迪), the nation’s biggest solar cell maker, expects losses to deepen this quarter from the third quarter, when the company reported NT$566 million (US$18.79 million) in net losses as a supply glut drove down prices, according to a company report released yesterday.
Motech said its third-quarter losses eased from the second quarter when it booked NT$637 million in losses, but they compared with a net profit of NT$1.86 billion during the same period last year.
For the first nine months, Motech, in which Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) owns a 20 percent stake, accumulated net losses of NT$518 million, compared with a net profit of NT$3 billion the previous year, a loss per share of NT$1.18.
“The destocking cycle is expected to extend into next year, sharpening price erosion,” Motech chief financial officer Jack Hsieh (謝祖葳) told an investor conference.
Polysilicon prices fell 54 percent from US$82.70 per kilogram in April to US$38.13 as of Oct. 20, while solar cell prices plunged by 47 percent from US$1.17 per watt to US$0.62, figures compiled by market researcher TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) showed.
Meanwhile, 6-inch multi-wafer prices tumbled 55 percent from US$3.43 to US$1.53, while 6-inch mono-wafers shed 44 percent from US$3.75 to US$2.10, TrendForce figures showed.
Prices have since weakened further, with polysilicon prices likely to decline to US$25 per kilogram, Hsieh said.
The market’s current inventory level can meet 50 percent of the estimated demand for the coming year, he said.
Rising protectionism, particularly in the US and Germany, may change the rules of the game, leading to the emergence of a few very big and powerful integrated players, Hsieh said.
Sino-American Silicon Products Inc (SAS, 中美晶), another solar wafer maker, shared in the bearish sentiment, saying irrational dumping may accelerate in the fourth quarter and beyond as some players seek to exit the market.
“The increasing global economic uncertainty and Europe’s debt crisis cast a further shadow on a sector that is entering its low season,” SAS president Doris Hsu (徐秀蘭) told another investor conference yesterday.
Governments may reconsider subsidy policies, while consumers may balk at installing green energy devices if the job market turns sour, Hsu said.
The expected cold, harsh winter this year poses additional downside risks, she said.
“The visibility is so poor that we don’t see orders beyond one month ahead,” Hsu said.
However, SAS fared better than Motech, as the company managed to break even in the third quarter after posting NT$130 million (US$4.48 million) in net profits in the second quarter, company data showed.
After-tax income was NT$1.27 billion in the first nine months, or earnings per share of NT$3.06, Hsu said.
Motech shares closed down 1.82 percent at NT$59.2, while SAS shares climbed 1.32 percent to NT$53.9 yesterday.
POWERING UP: PSUs for AI servers made up about 50% of Delta’s total server PSU revenue during the first three quarters of last year, the company said Power supply and electronic components maker Delta Electronics Inc (台達電) reported record-high revenue of NT$161.61 billion (US$5.11 billion) for last quarter and said it remains positive about this quarter. Last quarter’s figure was up 7.6 percent from the previous quarter and 41.51 percent higher than a year earlier, and largely in line with Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting Co’s (元大投顧) forecast of NT$160 billion. Delta’s annual revenue last year rose 31.76 percent year-on-year to NT$554.89 billion, also a record high for the company. Its strong performance reflected continued demand for high-performance power solutions and advanced liquid-cooling products used in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers,
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