The leading economic indicator index picked up slightly last month from a month earlier, lending support to steady economic expansion for Taiwan in the next six months although the growth might slow, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) said yesterday.
The leading indicator index, which takes its monthly reading from export orders, stock prices, building permits, producers’ inventory and other gauges, gained 0.3 percent to 121.8 last month, from at 119.3 a month earlier, the report showed.
“The figures indicate the economy will continue stable growth in the months ahead,” Hung Jui-bin (洪瑞彬), director-general of the council’s Economic Research Department, told a media briefing.
To consolidate the economic pickup, the government is taking steps to attract foreign capital and encourage private investment, which would help boost employment opportunities, Hung said.
The annualized six-month rate of change — a more reliable indicator of business prospects as it factors in seasonal adjustments — lost 0.4 percentage points, weakening for the 13th consecutive month, but the decline narrowed, the report said.
That suggested the economy remains healthy this year, but may not see aggressive expansion as it did last year, when GDP likely rose by double digits, Hung said.
Of the seven leading indicator components, five moved down while two pointed up, the report said.
The semiconductor book-to-bill ratio dropped below the neutral threshold for the third straight month at 0.90 last month. The measure is important because the nation houses the world’s two leading contract chipmakers, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (台積電) and United Microelectronics Corp (聯電).
The average monthly overtime and export orders sub-indexes also posted negative cyclical movements from a month earlier with the end of the “hot” season.
However, the sub-indexes on the stock prices and building permits strengthened, suggesting a bullish outlook for both equity and property markets. The coincident index, used to reflect the current economic condition, climbed 1.5 percent to 130.6, driven by stronger non-farm employment, retail and food sales, industrial output and electric power consumption, the report said.
The sub-indexes of customs-cleared exports and imports of capital equipment contracted from November, the report said.
The data suggested domestic demand will have to contribute more in driving the economy this year, council researcher Lin Lih-jen (林麗貞) said.
The economy was expected to expand 4.51 percent this year from last year, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics forecast last November.
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