Coffee production in India, the third-biggest grower in Asia, may reach a record next year as widespread rain in the main growing regions aids crop prospects, likely increasing shipments to buyers in Europe.
Output may total 300,000 to 305,000 tonnes in the year starting on Oct. 1, up from 289,600 tonnes, Coffee Exporters Association of India president Ramesh Rajah said in a phone interview from Bangalore.
The harvest may include 210,000 tonnes of robusta, used in instant coffee, compared with 195,000 tonnes this year, he said.
Record production in India, which exports nearly two-thirds of its output, may cool a 21 percent rally in robusta coffee prices in London amid a decline in global inventory of arabica variety. Arabica coffee had the biggest weekly gain since 2006 last week amid tight supplies and quality problems with the crop in Brazil, the world’s biggest grower.
“India will have a lot more coffee to export next season and I suspect it’s going to be difficult for robusta prices to sustain,” Rajah said.
Robusta coffee for immediate delivery in London is trading at a discount to the futures market, he said.
Robusta for September delivery advanced US$20, or 1.3 percent, to US$1,571 a tonne on the LIFFE on Friday. Arabica coffee for September delivery climbed 2.7 percent to US$1.621 a pound in New York, taking last week’s gain to 11 percent, the most since Jan. 6, 2006.
“Demand from Europe, by far our biggest market, has been slackening because of the economic crisis there,” Rajah said. “The contagion somehow has not hit Italy in a big way, and that is a big relief.”
Shipments jumped to 187,337 tonnes between Oct. 1 and June 16, 42 percent more than the 132,328 tonnes shipped a year earlier, the state-owned Coffee Board said on its Web site. Sales were worth US$398 million, up from US$306.6 million a year ago, it said.
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