Australian hopes of a quick rebound from the global downturn were dented on Wednesday when official figures showed the economy had not grown as much as expected in the third quarter.
Data showed the economy, dubbed the “wonder from Down Under” as it led the world in recovering from the slump, grew just 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter, well down from the previous three months when it expanded 0.6 percent.
Economists had expected an expansion of 0.4 percent. The year-on-year growth figure was 0.5 percent, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.
Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said the figures were “pretty stunning” after the worst global slowdown in decades, but warned the recovery was still relying on government stimulus.
“Conditions are improving, but I think the accounts today provide a cautionary reminder that there’s some time to go before our growth momentum becomes sustainable,” he told reporters.
“What we’re seeing is a growth figure which is quite remarkable given the circumstances we were in a year ago,” he said. “We’ve put in the hard yards to do that, but we understand there’s much, much more to do.”
Australia was the only major Western economy to avoid a recession in the global downturn — thanks to strong resources exports and huge emergency spending. And in October it became the first to ease monetary stimulus.
Unemployment fell to 5.7 percent last month, reinforcing hopes of a rapid recovery with both business and consumer confidence buoyant, the stock market high and the Australian dollar approaching parity with the greenback.
The commodities-based currency took a battering from Wednesday’s news, closing down US$0.013 at US$0.8987. Stocks dipped 0.25 percent, with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index shedding 11.6 points to close at 4,661.9.
Analysts said the sluggish new growth figure was a reminder that the recovery might not be as straightforward as previously hoped.
“The critical point is we’re not slipping back towards anything representing recession,” the Australian newspaper’s business writer Andrew Main told Sky News. “It’s a reminder that all graphs don’t go in a straight line — they go up, they go down. What we’re looking at is a reminder that the economic recovery in Australia is not going to be a straight-line exercise.”
Economists also said the figure made Australia’s central bank less likely to raise interest rates for the fourth time in a row in its next announcement in February.
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Ric Battellino said rates, pulled off 50-year lows of 3.00 percent to 3.75 percent in consecutive months, showed monetary police was back in “normal range.”
“It would be reasonable to conclude that the overall stance of monetary policy is now back in the normal range, though in the expansionary segment of that range,” Battelino told a banking conference.
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