The domestic economy’s cyclical indicators flashed a “yellow-blue” light last month after nine consecutive blue signals, showing that the state of the economy is improving thanks to a pickup in retail and wholesale, the Council for Economic Planning and Development said yesterday.
The index of leading indicators used to gauge the economic outlook for the next three to six months climbed 1.8 percent to 97.9 points last month, with the annualized six-month rate gaining 4.8 points to 8.3 percent, the CEPD said.
“The economic indicators turned from blue to yellow-blue in June, owing to improving consumption, industrial production and equity market data,” Hung Jui-bin (洪瑞彬), director-general of the economic research department, told a media briefing.
The change indicates the economy is moving toward stability, but it is premature to talk about a recovery, Hung said.
“The job market [at home] remains tough and the world economy may not regain significant momentum until the second half of next year,” the official said.
Of the seven leading indicators, five picked up last month: export orders, money supply, semiconductor book-to-ratio data, share prices and average overtime in industry and services.
The M1B money supply, which refers to cash in circulation and passbook deposits, jumped 16.9 percent last month as investors continued to channel funds from time deposits to demand savings accounts.
However, new building permits and manufacturers’ inventories slipped from a month earlier.
The index of concurrent indicators gained for the fifth month to 89.6 points, up 1.1 percent from a month earlier.
CEPD research division chief Wu Ming-huei (吳明蕙) said the sales index of wholesale, retail and food services contributed the most to the rise, with business volume increasing 5.8 percent from last year.
Analysts said the economy was improving, but added that the downturn was not over yet.
Cheng Cheng-mount (鄭貞茂), chief economist at Citigroup Inc Taiwan, said the CEPD report confirmed that the outlook was improving.
“The economy will continue to contract in the third quarter and recover to modest growth in the fourth quarter because of the base effect,” Cheng said by telephone.
Cheng put the contraction at 8.5 percent between April and last month. The Directorate-General of Budgeting, Accounting and Statistics is scheduled to release the figure next month.
Kevin Hsiao (蕭正義), head of UBS Wealth Management Research, said there was a gap in the nation’s financial and economic data, with the former outperforming the latter.
Hsiao said excess capital and improving investors’ confidence accounted for the difference adding that a true recovery would hinge on the global economy.
AI REVOLUTION: The event is to take place from Wednesday to Friday at the Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center’s halls 1 and 2 and would feature more than 1,100 exhibitors Semicon Taiwan, an annual international semiconductor exhibition, would bring leaders from the world’s top technology firms to Taipei this year, the event organizer said. The CEO Summit is to feature nine global leaders from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), ASE Technology Holding Co (ASE, 日月光投控), Applied Materials Inc, Google, Samsung Electronics Co, SK Hynix Inc, Microsoft Corp, Interuniversity Microelectronic Centre and Marvell Technology Group Ltd, SEMI said in a news release last week. The top executives would delve into how semiconductors are positioned as the driving force behind global technological innovation amid the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, the organizer said. Among them,
When she was in fifth grade, Scarlett Goddard Strahan started to worry about getting wrinkles. By the time she turned 10, she and her friends were spending hours on ByteDance Ltd’s TikTok and Google’s YouTube watching influencers tout products for achieving today’s beauty aesthetic: a dewy, “glowy,” flawless complexion. Goddard Strahan developed an elaborate skin care routine with facial cleansers, mists, hydrating masks and moisturizers. One night, her skin began to burn intensely and erupted in blisters. Heavy use of adult-strength products had wreaked havoc on her skin. Months later, patches of tiny bumps remain on her face, and her cheeks turn
Demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips should spur growth for the semiconductor industry over the next few years, the CEO of a major supplier to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) said, dismissing concerns that investors had misjudged the pace and extent of spending on AI. While the global chip market has grown about 8 percent annually over the past 20 years, AI semiconductors should grow at a much higher rate going forward, Scientech Corp (辛耘) chief executive officer Hsu Ming-chi (許明琪) told Bloomberg Television. “This booming of the AI industry has just begun,” Hsu said. “For the most prominent
Former Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) chairman Mark Liu (劉德音) yesterday warned against the tendency to label stakeholders as either “pro-China” or “pro-US,” calling such rigid thinking a “trap” that could impede policy discussions. Liu, an adviser to the Cabinet’s Economic Development Committee, made the comments in his keynote speech at the committee’s first advisers’ meeting. Speaking in front of Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰), National Development Council (NDC) Minister Paul Liu (劉鏡清) and other officials, Liu urged the public to be wary of falling into the “trap” of categorizing people involved in discussions into either the “pro-China” or “pro-US” camp. Liu,
RSS