Polaris Research Institute (
The institute forecast a 4.31 percent growth rate in June, while the government forecast a 4.58 percent rate in August.
"Taiwan's economy is expanding steadily on stable exports and moderately growing local demand," Liang Kuo-yuan (
Exports are expected to increase by 5.87 percent from last year, while imports should rise by 3.4 percent, the institute said.
Net exports are expected to contribute 2.07 percent of the GDP growth, down from 3.5 percent last year, a report released by the institute said.
Domestic consumption and investment are to increase by 2.97 percent and 6.51 percent respectively, the report said.
The private sector, together with government investment and consumption, would contribute 2.54 percent of economic growth this year, up from 1.12 percent last year, it said.
An improved employment market, a slight increase in the average wage and the easing of the credit abuse problem were seen as the major factors pushing up domestic demand.
Two strong typhoons and rising raw material prices are expected to push the consumer price index (CPI) to 2.51 percent in the fourth quarter, the institute said yesterday. But it said the CPI for the whole year would be 1.3 percent, less than the government's prediction of 1.46 percent.
The institute still believes the central bank will raise interest rates again in December.
Three experts in the high technology industry have said that US President Donald Trump’s pledge to impose higher tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors is part of an effort to force Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) to the negotiating table. In a speech to Republicans on Jan. 27, Trump said he intends to impose tariffs on Taiwan to bring chip production to the US. “The incentive is going to be they’re not going to want to pay a 25, 50 or even a 100 percent tax,” he said. Darson Chiu (邱達生), an economics professor at Taichung-based Tunghai University and director-general of
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