Wall Street heads into a holiday-shortened week with indexes near fresh highs and debate growing about whether the long market rally still has "legs."
The main indexes made solid gains over the week on the heels of market-friendly comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, lifting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to an all-time high.
The Dow advanced 1.48 percent for the week to finish on Friday at a record closing high of 12,767.57 ahead of the Presidents' Day three-day holiday weekend.
The broad-market Standard and Poor's 500 index climbed 1.21 percent on the week to 1,455.54 and the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite index added 1.48 percent to 2,499.31. Both indexes held near multiyear highs.
The market extended its gains over the past week in the wake of comments from Bernanke, who told Congress in a semiannual report that economic growth is picking up while inflation appears to be easing.
The not-too-hot, not-too-cold economic scenario sparked strong gains for the stock market, as analysts read the remarks as suggesting Bernanke and the Fed are in no hurry to hike interest rates.
"The major US equity market indices regained their upward momentum and interest rates fell back in reaction to Bernanke's testimonies on the economy and monetary policy," said Stephen Gallagher, economist at Societe Generale.
"The conclusions -- moderate growth, slowing inflation but a risk that inflation could be higher -- were known in advance. Investors responded enthusiastically nonetheless. The overriding feature from Bernanke was a sense of status quo on policy, and that comes with some relief," he said.
Some analysts are growing more cautious about the market, which has not had a correction since a strong run began last July, and wonder whether too much of the gains are simply from momentum.
"The recent market move itself appears to be the biggest catalyst driving the bulls," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at DA Davidson.
Dickson said the market has "clearly moved into `overbought' territory," and that "we would not be surprised to see the `bears' begin to step in and launch sell programs to lock up recently generated paper profits on their long positions."
Others said they believed the rally still had room to run.
"This week's market movement has not created any major changes to technical conditions, which continue to suggest the market has more upside ahead," said Gregory Drahuschak at Janney Montgomery Scott. "We caution, however, a correction at some point is likely. At the same time we continue to think that this will offer an excellent chance to add to positions or to establish new ones."
Al Goldman at AG Edwards said the long-term outlook remains positive, based on the strong economic fundamentals.
"The gurus who have been calling `bear' for months and years remind us of the little guy who cried wolf," he said.
Goldman said the numerous predictions of a correction means some selling pressure has already been absorbed.
"The time to get nervous is when the majority is no longer predicting a correction and have loaded up with stocks," he said. "Long-term investors must concentrate on the big picture of the economy and stock market action. We believe that picture remains positive, and we advise not listening to those crying wolf or bear."
The bond market gained as fears on inflation and rate hikes receded.
CHIP WAR: Tariffs on Taiwanese chips would prompt companies to move their factories, but not necessarily to the US, unleashing a ‘global cross-sector tariff war’ US President Donald Trump would “shoot himself in the foot” if he follows through on his recent pledge to impose higher tariffs on Taiwanese and other foreign semiconductors entering the US, analysts said. Trump’s plans to raise tariffs on chips manufactured in Taiwan to as high as 100 percent would backfire, macroeconomist Henry Wu (吳嘉隆) said. He would “shoot himself in the foot,” Wu said on Saturday, as such economic measures would lead Taiwanese chip suppliers to pass on additional costs to their US clients and consumers, and ultimately cause another wave of inflation. Trump has claimed that Taiwan took up to
SUPPORT: The government said it would help firms deal with supply disruptions, after Trump signed orders imposing tariffs of 25 percent on imports from Canada and Mexico The government pledged to help companies with operations in Mexico, such as iPhone assembler Hon Hai Precision Industry Co (鴻海精密), also known as Foxconn Technology Group (富士康科技集團), shift production lines and investment if needed to deal with higher US tariffs. The Ministry of Economic Affairs yesterday announced measures to help local firms cope with the US tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, China and other potential areas. The ministry said that it would establish an investment and trade service center in the US to help Taiwanese firms assess the investment environment in different US states, plan supply chain relocation strategies and
WASHINGTON POLICY: Tariffs of 10 percent or more and other new costs are tipped to hit shipments of small parcels, cutting export growth by 1.3 percentage points The decision by US President Donald Trump to ban Chinese companies from using a US tariff loophole would hit tens of billions of dollars of trade and reduce China’s economic growth this year, according to new estimates by economists at Nomura Holdings Inc. According to Nomura’s estimates, last year companies such as Shein (希音) and PDD Holdings Inc’s (拼多多控股) Temu shipped US$46 billion of small parcels to the US to take advantage of the rule that allows items with a declared value under US$800 to enter the US tariff-free. Tariffs of 10 percent or more and other new costs would slash such
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co (鴻海精密) is reportedly making another pass at Nissan Motor Co, as the Japanese automaker's tie-up with Honda Motor Co falls apart. Nissan shares rose as much as 6 percent after Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported that Hon Hai chairman Young Liu (劉揚偉) instructed former Nissan executive Jun Seki to connect with French carmaker Renault SA, which holds about 36 percent of Nissan’s stock. Hon Hai, the Taiwanese iPhone-maker also known as Foxconn Technology Group (富士康科技集團), was exploring an investment or buyout of Nissan last year, but backed off in December after the Japanese carmaker penned a deal