Despite the recent stabilization in oil prices, it is unlikely that crude prices will return to their previous level in the next few years, thanks to continuous robust demand, BNP Paribas Private Bank said yesterday.
The French investment bank expects crude oil prices to stay at around US$60 a barrel on average next year, up from US$54 year-to-date, and US$42 last year.
The chance that oil prices will drop below US$50 per barrel in the next few years is slim, Alan Mudie, the chief investment officer at BNP Parias' Private Bank, told a media briefing in Taipei yesterday.
China's urbanization will continue to drive a long-term quest for energy, while supplies, which have been constrained by tight refinery capacity utilization, will not be able to catch up until after expansion, which will take years, Mudie said.
As of press time, crude oil for December delivery yesterday fell below US$60 per barrel to be traded at US$59.56 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Oil prices reached a high of US$70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30 after a series of hurricanes damaged US refineries.
Similarly, Swiss bank UBS AG predicted earlier this month that oil prices would hover above US$60 a barrel next year, in light of the nearly full-load capacity of oil-producing countries and refineries.
The trend is expected to last in 2007 until productivity levels improve, according to the Swiss bank.
BNP Paribas suggested keeping oil stocks for long-tern investment and gold exposure with a bet at US$525 for the next 12 months, on a potential correction at US$440 in the short term.
On equities investment, EU members, emerging markets in Latin America such as Brazil and Mexico in the raw material sector, and Asian countries -- excluding Japan -- could be fine picks, the French bank said.
However, "Taiwan has been a disappointing market to date" and one of a few down markets, in part because of concern over cross-strait relations as well as a lack of domestic buying and concern over financial sector, Mudie said.
The bank remains bearish about the weak local bourse, waiting for catalysts to emerge, despite a bunch of tempting valuation figures, including a predicted net earnings-per-share growth of 13 percent, and a forecasted dividend yield of 4.5 percent for next year, he said.
The TAIEX yesterday closed down 21.48 points at 5,717.28 on turnover of NT$56.97 billion. The TAIEX has plummeted about 6.6 percent since the beginning of this month on fears of a flu pandemic.
The stock market could be less glum this week, if key high-tech players, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (
The company said in August that it hoped to see the TAIEX reach an annual high this month, bolstered by the continuous inflow of overseas capital. However, in light of weakening market confidence, the company has revamped its viewpoints, Hou said.
DIVIDED VIEWS: Although the Fed agreed on holding rates steady, some officials see no rate cuts for this year, while 10 policymakers foresee two or more cuts There are a lot of unknowns about the outlook for the economy and interest rates, but US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled at least one thing seems certain: Higher prices are coming. Fed policymakers voted unanimously to hold interest rates steady at a range of 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent for a fourth straight meeting on Wednesday, as they await clarity on whether tariffs would leave a one-time or more lasting mark on inflation. Powell said it is still unclear how much of the bill would fall on the shoulders of consumers, but he expects to learn more about tariffs
NOT JUSTIFIED: The bank’s governor said there would only be a rate cut if inflation falls below 1.5% and economic conditions deteriorate, which have not been detected The central bank yesterday kept its key interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive quarter, aligning with market expectations, while slightly lowering its inflation outlook amid signs of cooling price pressures. The move came after the US Federal Reserve held rates steady overnight, despite pressure from US President Donald Trump to cut borrowing costs. Central bank board members unanimously voted to maintain the discount rate at 2 percent, the secured loan rate at 2.375 percent and the overnight lending rate at 4.25 percent. “We consider the policy decision appropriate, although it suggests tightening leaning after factoring in slackening inflation and stable GDP growth,”
Meta Platforms Inc offered US$100 million bonuses to OpenAI employees in an unsuccessful bid to poach the ChatGPT maker’s talent and strengthen its own generative artificial intelligence (AI) teams, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has said. Facebook’s parent company — a competitor of OpenAI — also offered “giant” annual salaries exceeding US$100 million to OpenAI staffers, Altman said in an interview on the Uncapped with Jack Altman podcast released on Tuesday. “It is crazy,” Sam Altman told his brother Jack in the interview. “I’m really happy that at least so far none of our best people have decided to take them
PLANS: MSI is also planning to upgrade its service center in the Netherlands Micro-Star International Co (MSI, 微星) yesterday said it plans to set up a server assembly line at its Poland service center this year at the earliest. The computer and peripherals manufacturer expects that the new server assembly line would shorten transportation times in shipments to European countries, a company spokesperson told the Taipei Times by telephone. MSI manufactures motherboards, graphics cards, notebook computers, servers, optical storage devices and communication devices. The company operates plants in Taiwan and China, and runs a global network of service centers. The company is also considering upgrading its service center in the Netherlands into a
RSS