Forty years ago this week, future Intel co-founder Gordon Moore postulated the amazing theorem that the power of computer chips would double every 24 months at the same time as their prices would halve.
The pronouncement has since taken on the aura of the ultimate high-tech prophecy and has even spawned a parody on the cartoon show "The Simpsons" in which the mad scientist Professor Frink said: "I predict that within 100 years, computers will be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger and so expensive that only the five richest kings of Europe will own them."
But at Intel, the world's leading chipmaker, the anniversary of Moore's Law on Tuesday coincided with some pretty amazing events in their own right.
PHOTO: NY TIMES
The Silicon Valley giant announced that its earning dramatically increased as the world rapidly shifts from desktop computers to mobile laptops that use more expensive and sophisticated chips.
A day earlier, the company debuted its so-called dual core chips, which radically alter computer design by integrating two high-powered processors on one silicon wafer, instantly doubling the potential power of personal computers. The company also announced its first WiMax chip, pioneering a technology that can send high-speed broadband signals over a citywide area.
The company said it believes that within a few years, the technology could bring broadband to thousands of cities in the world, including those that currently have none of the fibre optic or other communications networks that are usually needed for reliable Internet links.
Analysts said that the three developments are powerful signs that the world is rapidly approaching an era in which, thanks to the ever- increasing power of computers, information will be ubiquitous, personal and intensely mobile. For better or worse, billions of humans will be connected to a global computer network in one way or another for virtually every moment of their lives.
Back in 1965, when Moore wrote about his observations in the now-defunct Electronics magazine, his vision seemed outlandish even for science fiction afficionados. In fact, it probably even seemed outlandish as recently as 10 years ago, when the Internet was still in its nascent stages and its implications were appreciated only by a handful of geeks and venture capitalists.
Electronics 40 years ago was mostly about vacuum tubes, and integrated circuits were largely unknown and hugely expensive. So it required a huge leap of faith for Moore to make the following prediction: "The future of integrated electronics is the future of electronics itself. The advantages of integration will bring about a proliferation of electronics, pushing this science into many new areas. Integrated circuits will lead to such wonders as home computers."
Plotting curves on graph paper, Moore had noted that the number of components on an integrated circuit had doubled every year and figured that that rate would continue for a decade as transistors were made smaller. He also saw that the per-component costs would fall as manufacturing improved.
"The accuracy of the plot was not my principal objective," Moore said in interviews to mark the anniversary. "I just wanted to get the idea across that integrated circuits were the route to much lower-cost electronics."
When he made the observation, there were 50 to 60 transistors on an integrated circuit. Now, there are millions. In 1954, a transistor cost, on average, US$5.52. By 2004, its price tag was a billionth of a dollar.
But despite the price drop, the consumer electronics industry, which relies largely on semiconductors, pulled in US$1 trillion last year. Global semiconductor sales were US$213 billion, with Intel accounting for US$34.2 billion in sales. The 76-year-old Moore still ranks among the world's wealthiest people with an estimated fortune worth US$4.3 billion.
Moore said that the next 40 years could be "mind-boggling" and that he wished he could be around to see it. He said competition between chipmakers would continue to push progress but urged computer makers and software companies to improve the interfaces on computers and gadgets to make them easier to use.
Intel also had another request on the 40th anniversary of the theorem. Some absent-minded genius at the company has misplaced the original copy of the magazine containing the computer world's founding prophecy. In a post to the online trading site eBay, the company is offering US$10,000 for a copy in mint condition.
Semiconductor shares in China surged yesterday after Reuters reported the US had ordered chipmaking giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) to halt shipments of advanced chips to Chinese customers, which investors believe could accelerate Beijing’s self-reliance efforts. TSMC yesterday started to suspend shipments of certain sophisticated chips to some Chinese clients after receiving a letter from the US Department of Commerce imposing export restrictions on those products, Reuters reported on Sunday, citing an unnamed source. The US imposed export restrictions on TSMC’s 7-nanometer or more advanced designs, Reuters reported. Investors figured that would encourage authorities to support China’s industry and bought shares
TECH WAR CONTINUES: The suspension of TSMC AI chips and GPUs would be a heavy blow to China’s chip designers and would affect its competitive edge Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, is reportedly to halt supply of artificial intelligence (AI) chips and graphics processing units (GPUs) made on 7-nanometer or more advanced process technologies from next week in order to comply with US Department of Commerce rules. TSMC has sent e-mails to its Chinese AI customers, informing them about the suspension starting on Monday, Chinese online news outlet Ijiwei.com (愛集微) reported yesterday. The US Department of Commerce has not formally unveiled further semiconductor measures against China yet. “TSMC does not comment on market rumors. TSMC is a law-abiding company and we are
FLEXIBLE: Taiwan can develop its own ground station equipment, and has highly competitive manufacturers and suppliers with diversified production, the MOEA said The Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) yesterday disputed reports that suppliers to US-based Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX) had been asked to move production out of Taiwan. Reuters had reported on Tuesday last week that Elon Musk-owned SpaceX had asked their manufacturers to produce outside of Taiwan given geopolitical risks and that at least one Taiwanese supplier had been pushed to relocate production to Vietnam. SpaceX’s requests place a renewed focus on the contentious relationship Musk has had with Taiwan, especially after he said last year that Taiwan is an “integral part” of China, sparking sharp criticism from Taiwanese authorities. The ministry said
US President Joe Biden’s administration is racing to complete CHIPS and Science Act agreements with companies such as Intel Corp and Samsung Electronics Co, aiming to shore up one of its signature initiatives before US president-elect Donald Trump enters the White House. The US Department of Commerce has allocated more than 90 percent of the US$39 billion in grants under the act, a landmark law enacted in 2022 designed to rebuild the domestic chip industry. However, the agency has only announced one binding agreement so far. The next two months would prove critical for more than 20 companies still in the process