The local property market is expected to see a booming year this year with an estimated growth of up to 20 percent in sales, real-estate proprietors said.
"This will be a year when the local property market finally bottoms out of a decade-long recession with both property prices and transactions beginning to climb," said Jeremy Shive, (
Chen Yun-ru (
According to the Architecture and Building Research Institute of the Ministry of the Interior, the nation's index of leading property indicators increased by 2.32 percent from the second quarter to 105.39 points in the third quarter -- the highest in four-and-a-half years, signifying that the property market is expected to see a full recovery within the next three quarters.
The upcoming property recovery will continue to be bolstered by low-interest loans, Chen said.
Such loans could attract property investors, who currently account for 20 percent of potential home buyers, to pull their pocket money out of banks and inject it into the property market, she added.
Property investors used to account for approximately 7 percent of potential home shoppers since interest earnings for bank deposits outnumbered returns for property investments.
"Once the interest rate for time-deposit exceeds 3 percent, investors will withdraw from the market," Chen said.
Both Shive and Chen expect the market's transactions in the north of the country to further grow by 15 to 20 percent this year after seeing a 10 percent to 15 percent increase during the second half year of last year.
The property prices in the north of the country are also expected to rise by 5 to 10 percent, said Hung Chia-sheng (
Hung said that the land developers and construction companies are very optimistic about the upcoming property, planning to launch NT$40 billion-worth of housing projects in the first quarter in the greater Taipei area alone.
"The property recovery is expected to last two years," Hung said, adding the most marketable houses are priced between NT$8 million to NT$15 million to cater to the housing need of the middle-class.
Property transactions and prices in central and southern Taiwan, however, are expected to remain flat yet stable, all three real-estate experts agreed.
But Billy Yen (顏炳立), general manager of DTZ Debenham Tie Leung International Property Advisers (戴德梁行), is less optimistic about the property market's outlook.
He said that there will be heated buying activity this year with an estimated 10 percent to 15 percent growth, but the market still remains at its bottom since property prices only slowly rebound and a big hike is unlikely in the near future.
"Only if the growth rate hits 10 percent can the local property market experience its glory days [back in the late 1980s]," Yen said.
Before the March presidential elections, home buyers will be less active, adopting a wait-and-see approach since political tensions between China and Taiwan may impact their willingness to make investments, he added.
But most market watchers expect buyers to turn active after the election.
Following the property recovery, Hung said that there is room for sales of pre-sale housing projects to grow, but Yen disagreed, saying "buyers are reluctant to put down big investments for houses that will be completed in two years since cross-strait tensions and the political climate may continue to disturb property prices within the next two years."
Yen and Chen share a similar view toward the impact of direct links on the property market.
They both said that the government's direct-link policy may marginalize the local property market since home buyers also expressed interest in shopping for homes on the other side of the Taiwan Strait.
The direct-links policy, nevertheless, will have its upside in the long term if Chinese are allowed to put down their money on the local property market, market watchers estimated.
Offering their house-buying tips, Victor Chang (張欣民), an associate manager with Sinyi Real Estate, said that the most popular houses for sale in the greater Taipei area include properties located in the Da-An district of Taipei City as well as Chung-ho City in Taipei County.
He said that proximity to schools, shopping centers and the mass transit system are as important as location and prices to buyers when it comes to closing deals.
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