Sat, Jun 14, 2003 page11

• Asian growth looks set to pick up

  BACK TO FUNDAMENTALS Some economists are pondering whether to raise their forecasts for Asia now that the SARS epidemic appears to be fading

  • REUTERS
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  Rebecca Yang, who sells dried meats and pickled vegetables in an outdoor market close to Taipei, could tell economists a thing or two about SARS.

  "It's over, it was only that for two weeks. Now, nobody wears masks and nobody is afraid," Yang, 30, says. "Now, it's only the rain that's keeping customers away."

  So there.

  SARS swiftly spread fear throughout Asia and beyond when it broke out in March, but the virus now appears to be fading, leaving economists cautiously optimistic of faster growth across the region if the improvement continues.

  What's more, the economic toll taken by the mysterious bug may turn out to be less severe than first feared.

  "The impact is not as bad as we thought and the duration has been shorter," said Rob Subbaraman, a senior economist with Lehman Brothers in Tokyo.

  More data is needed, but for the first time in months some economists are thinking about raising, not lowering, their Asian growth forecasts.

  "It's a bit early, but I'm beginning to lean in that direction," Subbaraman said.

  The dissipating SARS cloud has allowed investors to focus on improving fundamentals in the region and in the US, the biggest customer for Asian products.

  Stock markets across Asia have spiked to multi-month highs this week, inspired by Wall Street as evidence mounts of a rebound in the US economy.

  Foreign fund inflows to take advantage of rising equity prices have also supported regional currencies.

  While the Asian economic outlook is brightening, many analysts are still wary of revising their forecasts after SARS' alarming return to Toronto, Canada, the only place outside Asia where people have died from the virus.

  "There seems to be a recovery of the retail sector to levels before; there is some upside risk. But we are in no hurry to turn our [growth] forecasts up," Lian Chai-liang, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank based in Singapore.

  While Asian data this week suggest trade and manufacturing have been only mildly affected by SARS, economies that depend heavily on the retail sector and tourism like Hong Kong and Singapore are likely to see a longer-lasting impact.

  Singapore said yesterday 65 percent fewer visitors arrived in the June 2 week than in the same week last year. Hong Kong's retail sales for April fell 15.2 percent.

  But Malaysia's main port operator reported only a small drop in shipments last month, while Taiwan's exports to China doubled last month, getting close to pre-SARS levels.

  China, the center of the global SARS storm and a big importer of raw materials and components from regional trading partners, saw foreign investment inflows jump a strong 40 percent last month.

  But the Chinese data also showed how SARS is likely to ripple through the economy for quite a while: new investment projects slowed sharply as executives postponed travel.

  A build-up of inventories could also weigh on output in coming months.

  "A lot of economic indicators coming out are better than expected. But it takes a long time for the economies to normalize. Just look at the load factors for Cathay," said Marvin Wong, an economist with Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong.

  Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd has enjoyed increasing business since the WHO lifted a travel warning on its base in Hong Kong, but the airline is still carrying just one-third the number of passengers compared with last year.

  However, Cathay said this week it would return to about 70 percent of its full schedule next month. Likewise, Singapore expects its economy to shrink in the second quarter but still holds out hopes of avoiding recession this year.

  Economists see other reasons to be optimistic about a pick-up in Asian growth.

  "There have been price dis-counts, pro-active policy responses and pent-up demand," Subbaraman said.

  Malaysia, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea all passed significant stimulus packages.

  China has used pay rises and extended holidays to encourage people to spend more, while consumers across Asia are being lured by cheap holiday packages.

  All they need now is for the rain to stop.
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