As long as the production lines keep on running, Taiwan's export industries will only feel a limited impact from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak, although the atypical pneumonia has seriously disturbed cross-Taiwan Strait economic activities, a financial official said yesterday.
The official said that in the first three months of this year, Hong Kong and mainland China respectively imported 22.5 percent and 10.5 percent of Taiwan's export products. Taiwan's export structure is not likely to have too drastic a change in the short run, he said.
However, the official would not rule out the possibility that Taiwan's foreign trade might be affected by the SARS outbreak in case of a shrinkage of direct foreign investments and domestic investments in mainland China.
On the other hand, Taiwan's industrial sector in general is more pessimistic about the developments. A survey conducted by the Taipei Computer Association April 7 through April 14 among executives of computer firms showed 65 percent said that they do not believe that the epidemic can be fully controlled before the end of June, while 90 percent said that SARS has already adversely affected Taiwan's economic development.
While only 12 percent of those responding said that the US-led war against Iraq has affected the world economy, 45 percent suggested that SARS is having a more serious economic impact.
Another survey conducted by the Federation of Industrial Associations April 14 through April 21 indicated that dwindling economic activities on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have already damaged the business of certain manufacturing industries. Shoe manufacturers in Taiwan said that over the past few weeks, orders from the US and Europe dropped by 20 percent to 30 percent, as some traders canceled their purchasing tours to this part of the world due to SARS.
Yeh Yung-lung, deputy director of the Small and Medium Business Department under the Ministry of Economic Affairs, said Sunday that Taiwan's economy will inevitably be affected by the economic situation in mainland China. A deterioration of the mainland's economic situation will damage Taiwan's economy, in view of the growing interdependence.
He said that government sponsored trade promotion fairs scheduled for September and October may also be affected if the epidemic cannot be fully controlled within the next few months.
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