Sun, Feb 02, 2003 page6

• Japanese sell yen to stop appreciation

  CURRENCY With Sony and Toyota reporting that their sales overseas have been hurt by the yen's rise, the government sold to about Japanese yen 700 billion in recent days

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  The yen had its biggest decline against the dollar in three weeks after Japan said it has sold about Japanese yen 700 billion (US$5.88 billion) since mid-January to stem a rally that has crimped the country's exports.

  Some traders sold yen for dollars as a bet the Bank of Japan will keep selling the currency to cut into its 12 percent surge in the past 12 months, analysts said. With companies including Sony Corp and Toyota Motor Corp reporting sales overseas have been hurt by the yen's rise, Japanese officials have expressed concern the world's second-biggest economy is faltering.

  "Investors will be reluctant to buy the currency knowing the Japanese government is taking an active stance" to weaken it, said Daniel Katzive, currency strategist at UBS Warburg LLC, the second-biggest trader in the US$1.2 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, in Stamford, Connecticut. He said Japan will probably sell yen again.

  The yen slid to Japanese yen 119.87 per dollar, more than Japanese yen 2 weaker than a four-month high it reached Jan. 17, at 6pm in New York from Japanese yen 118.74 Friday. The yen has slid 1.7 percent this week, leaving it down 0.9 percent on the month.

  The dollar also had its biggest gain in four weeks against the euro Friday, advancing to US$1.0771 per euro from US$1.0823 Thursday as a surge in a Chicago factory index indicated the US economy may be strengthening.

  The yen sales are the first by the Bank of Japan since June, when it finished up seven days of sales worth more than US$30 billion to drive the yen to as weak as Japanese yen 120.26 per dollar.

  "The amount the Japanese government sold this time was not as big as in the past, but it was enough to make them accomplish what they wanted," said Brian Taylor, head foreign exchange trader at Manufacturers & Traders Trust in Buffalo, New York.

  "And they want a weaker yen."

  Taylor said he expects the yen to trade between Japanese yen 118 and Japanese yen 120 against the dollar in the next couple of weeks.

  Japan's economy, which has been in three recessions in a decade, will grow 0.9 percent in the year starting in April 2004, according to government estimates. Japan's growth won't reach 1.5 percent until the fiscal year starting April 2006, at least two years later than earlier forecast, the Cabinet Office said in its five-year economic outlook last week.

  The Japanese trade surplus fell 37 percent to Japanese yen 657.3 billion (US$5.6 billion) in December on falling exports and rising imports, another sign the yen's rally is hurting Japanese manufacturing. And the government said today that the jobless rate rose to 5.5 percent in December, matching a record high, while household spending fell to its lowest in more than two decades.

  "The Japanese economy has taken a turn for the worse," said Francesca Fornasari, a currency strategist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Lehman forecasts the yen could weaken to Japanese yen 122 per dollar within three months.

  Gains in the dollar accelerated after a government report showed personal spending rose by the most in five months in December. The 0.9 percent gain in spending last month to US$7.468 trillion at an annual rate was more than twice the 0.4 percent increase in November, the Commerce Department said. Incomes rose 0.4 percent, the biggest gain since June, after increasing 0.3 percent.

  Investors also bought dollars after a report showed a recovery among Chicago area factories gained strength in January.

  The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago's factory index rose to 56 from a revised 51.7 in December.

  Readings greater than 50 mean business expanded at the region's factories, while numbers lower signify contraction. The index has shown growth in 10 of the past 12 months.

  The numbers show "the US economy may not be as vulnerable as expected," said Lara Rhame, a currency economist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. She said the dollar could average US$1.0750 per euro this quarter.

  The dollar's gains cut into a slump that has driven it down in 11 of the past 12 months against the euro. The sluggish economic recovery and the threat of a US attack on Iraq have curbed overseas investment in the world's biggest economy.

  "When there is upheaval, money stays at home," said Anders Schelde, who helps run US$108 billion at Nordea Investment Management in Copenhagen. Schelde holds dollars and euros in line with what his benchmarks recommend. He said that if the euro keeps strengthening against the dollar, he'll reduce his euro holdings.
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