Taiwan's stock market could trade up to 6,200 points in the second half of 2003 on the back of a general economic recovery, after external uncertainties keep shares under pressure in the first half, analysts say.
Many believe the market could test 6,500 points against a background of progress in cross-strait links with China while some see 8,000 points as possible if the authorities prove supportive in view of the 2004 presidential elections.
Daiwa SBCM Cathay Securities Co (
But economic recovery could push it back up to 6,200-6,300 points in the fourth quarter.
Lin said a key variable will be the length of any US-Iraq conflict and its impact on oil prices.
TAIEX closed 2002 at 4,452.45, compared with 5,551.24 for 2001.
Truswell Securities Investment Trust Co (
"Companies with solid returns from their China operations will grab the spotlight next year, including the auto-related, steel, cement, construction-related and transport segments.
"With individual incomes rising in China, demand for autos will rise there at least for the following 3-5 years," Wang said.
In addition, "Taiwan stocks will get another lift if President Chen Shui-bian (
Taiwan's government has given the nod for the landmark indirect chartered flights between the island and the mainland during the lunar New Year holidays in February.
Currently Taiwan passengers heading to the mainland have to transit via Hong Kong or Macau.
Direct links have been cut off since the two sides split in 1949 at the end of a civil war.
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