Computer users are putting off upgrades of older models for one simple reason -- they don't need a new one, analysts say.
"The level of performance that is being delivered even on an average PC allows customers to extend the life cycle much longer," Charles Smulders, a vice president at US-based research firm Gartner Dataquest, said last week.
Market watchers had previously predicted that both corporations and consumers would replace their computer equipment approximately every three years, Smulders said. The last corporate computer buying spree was in 1999 as companies bought new Y2K-compliant equipment, or computers that would have no problem transitioning from year 1999 to year 2000. But the predicted rebound in computer sales failed to materialize this year.
"The end of 2002 would be over three years ... but because of this life-cycle extension, we are expecting that the upgrade cycle will be more muted than previously had been anticipated," Smulders said. "And so what you see is not so much a spike as a gradual rise over time."
Smulders now predicts the buying cycle will go from three to four years.
Computers currently on the market can perform more functions and at speeds beyond the needs of the average user, an official from VIA Technologies Inc (
"Clock speed won't increase demand any more. People are holding onto their PCs much longer," VIA Vice President Richard Brown said in October.
Intel Corp introduced a 3GHz processor, which can carry out 3 billion calculations per second, last month. But Brown said that the average user only needs a processor that runs at around 533MHz, about one-sixth the speed of Intel's new processor.
Most software doesn't require 3GHz processors, Smulders said.
"The gap between hardware and software performance is at an all-time high," he said.
In a recent survey by Taipei-based research firm TechInsight Inc (
"Lots of companies are extending the life cycle of their computers," said Kevin Huang (黃逸暉), a researcher at the company. "We do not anticipate a rebound until 2004 or 2005."
Martha Chen (
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