US airlines and hotels are bracing for a drop in travel as workers and vacationers avoid flying on Sept. 11 and the days before and after the first anniversary of the terrorist hijackings.
"It will be an odd week and we don't expect many people to be traveling," Barry Sternlicht, chairman and chief executive officer of Starwood Hotels Resorts Worldwide Inc, the world's largest owner of hotels, said Friday.
Starwood and FelCor Lodging Trust Inc, owner of Sheraton and Crowne Plaza hotels, expect a travel slowdown that week. UAL Corp's United Airlines, Delta Air Lines Inc, Continental Airlines Inc and ATA Holdings Corp all said they've seen a less demand for the week and most are cutting back flights.
The drop-off may hamper the recovery of travel industries still hurt by the decline in demand following the attacks and by the economic slowdown. US airlines had about US$1.4 billion in second-quarter losses and expect a full-year industrywide loss.
"There are not a lot of bookings on Sept. 11," ATA Chief Financial Officer Ken Wolff told Bloomberg News. His Indianapolis-based airline has canceled 70 flights, or 20 percent of its schedule.
Some people may fear a copycat incident, while others either don't want to upset their families or perceive that tighter security at US airports will make traveling more difficult, analysts, consultants and executives said. People are also reluctant to plan meetings and events on a national day of mourning, they said.
Airlines said ticket reservations are abnormally low for the full week, partly because the anniversary falls on a Wednesday.
The full effect won't be known until closer to the date because business travelers often make last-minute reservations.
"There's going to be a lot of visibility on this -- a lot of bookings may not materialize in that last week'' before Sept. 11, said Kevin Mitchell, chairman of the Business Travel Coalition, an organization that represents corporate travel interests.
Air travel always drops off in the third quarter as the heavy US summer vacation season ends. Business travel typically picks up a bit and may still be heavier than normal the week before and after the anniversary.
United, the second-biggest airline, will trim US flights "slightly" that day because of low demand, said spokesman Joe Hopkins. The Chicago-based carrier's third-quarter bookings per plane are running behind last year and the airline will keep flight capacity about 8 percent lower for the quarter.
Delta, the third-biggest US carrier, also is planning to cut some flights for the week because of weak demand and will make more adjustments if necessary as the date gets closer, said Peggy Estes, a spokeswoman for the Atlanta-based airline.
"There's so much [excess] capacity in the air right now that the airlines can cut flights and capacity and not affect availability," said Ron DiLeo, North American senior vice president of sales for Philadelphia-based Rosenbluth International, the world's third-largest corporate travel agency.
Major US airlines' flight capacity was about 8.5 percent lower in June from the year-earlier month, about the same as the decline in passenger traffic. The carriers have been restoring capacity a few percentage points each month since they cut about a fifth of their service after the attacks.
Meetings, conventions and other work events are likely to take a break that week. FelCor Chief Executive Officer Tom Corcoran said in an interview that people ``are reluctant to plan events during that time'' and that has slowed hotel business for the week. DiLeo said the slowdown is likely to be greatest in New York, where two of four hijacked planes were crashed into the World Trade Center's twin towers. The start of the UN session in New York that week should boost travel to the city, said Sean Hennessey, a director at PricewaterhouseCoopers.
International travel will be less affected. United, for example, said it won't cut any international flights on Sept. 11.
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