Taiwanese export orders are expected to grow by at least seven percent this year compared with 2001, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said yesterday. Export orders indicate shipments in two to three months.
The ministry also retained its earlier estimate that industrial output will expand by a minimum of five percent this year, its statistics department director Chang Yaw-tzong (
Export orders and industrial output posted increases of 7.09 and 4.81 percent, respectively, in the six months to June. The export orders rose to US$72.63 billion for the period.
"We expect solid momentum in manufacturing output -- which rose 5.78 percent in the six months to June from the previous year -- to be sustained in the third quarter," Chang said.
June's export orders were US$12.38 billion, slightly lower than May's US$13.14 billion, mainly due to a weak season for electronics and information technology and communications industries, the ministry said. But the June export orders represented an 11 percent rise from a year earlier.
"While the prospect of order taking may appear a bit unclear in July and August, we are certain of further double-digit growth [in export orders] from September," Chang said.
``Orders have been quite unstable over the past few months, and it does seem like demand in the US is slowing,'' said Ching Meng-hsiung, vice president of Picvue Electronics Ltd (碧悠), which makes display screens for customers such as Palm Inc and Handspring Inc. Picvue's revenue, almost half of which comes from the US, fell 8 percent in June from a year earlier.
Shipments to factories in China are helping to counter a slowdown in US demand. The ministry's report showed that US customers cut orders by 1.9 percent last month from a year earlier, following a 6.2 percent increase in May. European orders rose 8.1 percent last month, and orders from Japan rose 15.3 percent.
"The major drag is the US," said Franklin Poon, an economist at ABN Amro Asia Ltd. "Luckily we've got strong export orders from Hong Kong and from Japan."
Orders from Hong Kong climbed 29.8 percent in June from a year earlier as manufacturers shipped more parts to China for assembly, the ministry said.
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