With Japan entering its new fiscal year this week, the dollar could soon be back to its high-flying ways against the yen, no longer restrained by Japanese repatriation flows or equity support.
The dollar's gains against the euro are not so assured in the near term, however. While the euro has been unable to break out of its narrow range of US$0.86 to US$0.89, the dollar has been equally penned in even as evidence of a US economic rebound continues to build.
More immediately, however, currency markets may have to contend with an escalation in violence in the Middle East. Friday's developments caused a spike in the Swiss franc, which is considered the traditional safe haven currency in times of global unease.
The problem for safe-haven seekers is that the franc's caretakers, officials at the Swiss National Bank, have made clear that they want a softer franc against the euro. The dollar was quoted at SF1.6787 in New York, down from SF1.6845, and Japanese yen 132.63, down from Japanese yen 132.68 Thursday.
The euro was quoted at US$0.8721, up from US$0.8708. The dollar was quoted at 1.5936 Canadian dollars, up from C$1.5933. The British pound was unchanged at US$1.4253.
The coming week will kick off with the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment Monday, which is expected to improve for the first time in a year and a half. But traders won't be using any uptick in an otherwise dire reading to bid up the yen, or they will quickly meet a greater force of yen selling, analysts said.
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