Telecom industry analysts poured cold water on wireless operator claims that they will begin offering third-generation (3G) connections next year, saying that the service won't have much of an edge.
"Even if they can open their doors for business in early 2003, service will be voice, not data transmission," said Tony Wu (吳顯東), a chief researcher at the Market Intelligence Center (市場情報中心) under the government-funded Institute for Information Industry (資策會).
Analysts said few consumers will be interested in paying for broadband voice services since the transmission of data is where demand is expected to be.
"Using 3G service to `talk' doesn't sound exciting at all," said Alex Wu (吳興國), an analyst at KGI Securities Corp (中信證券).
3G sparked public interest in the past with its promise of high-speed data connections that would allow users to link to Web sites, download graphics and watch movies over their cellphones.
Operators face an additional hurdle in that content to attract customers is unavailable, Wu said.
"With the market [demand and applications] not ready, launching service early next year is too soon to make a profit," Wu said.
Taiwan issued five 3G licenses earlier this month, with licensing fees totaling NT$48.9 billion.
Three of the five license winners -- Taiwan Cellular Corp (台灣大哥大), Far EasTone Telecommunication Co's (遠傳電信) subsidiary Yuan-Ze Telecom Co (遠致電信) and state-run Chunghwa Telecom Co (中華電信) -- are incumbent wireless operators, while Asia Pacific Broadband Wireless Communication Inc (亞太行動寬頻) and Taiwan PCS Network Inc (聯邦電信) are new to the mobile-phone sector.
Despite the naysayers, the new entrants are upbeat on pushing 3G service into the market.
"We will begin offering 3G service in northern Taiwan by June next year and expect to attract 200,000 subscribers by year end," said Rock Hsu (
Hsu said the company has plans to roll out "content" services gradually and might focus first on voice services.
Asia Pacific Broadband says it will be the first to make a move.
"We will be the nation's first company offering 3G services," said the company's vice chairman Wang Lin-tai (
The venture is scheduled to begin operations in the first quarter of next year, he said.
Industry veterans are more conservative about the market.
"We will roll out the network to meet proven market demand," said Taiwan Cellular's vice president William Newton.
Adding that although 3G network and handset manufacturers expect equipment and handsets to be available in the fourth quarter of this year, Newton said Taiwan Cellular's 3G start up is contingent upon equipment performance.
Based on government regulations, all license owners have to pay at least 30 percent of their licensing fees by March 11.
Both Taiwan PCS Network and Yuan-Ze Telecom announced plans to increase capital on Tuesday.
"We expect to raise our capital from current NT$3.3 billion to about NT$15 billion by June this year," Taiwan PCS's Hsu said.
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