The nation's record jobless rate is set to rise further in the next 12 months with the nation's entry into the WTO exacerbating the situation, officials said yesterday.
Figures released by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) showed that unemployment hit 4.57 percent last year, up from 2.99 percent the previous year and the highest level since figures were first compiled in 1978.
PHOTO: AP
The December rate fell slightly to 5.22 percent from 5.28 percent in the previous month, but was considerably higher than the 3.27 percent recorded a year earlier, DGBAS said.
A decrease in first-time job seekers and an increase in part-time jobs during Taiwan's holiday season were the main reasons for the unemployment figure's drop last month, according to DGBAS.
The unemployment situation was likely to remain grim this year and could exceed 4.7 percent on average, a DGBAS official said.
"The Council for Economic Planning and Development [CEPD] earlier targeted a 2002 unemployment rate of below 4.7 percent. I believe it will be difficult to attain that goal," said Chen Jin-cherng (陳金城), deputy director of DGBAS's bureau of census.
The CEPD also estimated that the nation's entry into the WTO would aggravate the nation's unemployment by 0.22 percentage points this year.
"Now that unemployment has risen to above 5 percent, it will not be so easy for the figure to come down sharply anytime soon. I'm skeptical if it could come down to below 5 percent in March or April," Chen said.
While overseas orders are forecast to rise this year, job losses may continue as competition stiffens and more companies move to China.
The rising jobless rate "is partly a structural issue as capital flows to lower cost bases in mainland China," said Michael Kurtz, an economist at Bear Stearns Asia Ltd.
"Unemployment at these levels is going to create some problems getting the fire under consumer spending."
DGBAS anticipates the country's unemployment rate will ease further ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February thanks to the expected increase in temporary employment before the holidays and new jobs created by the launch of the nation's first computerized lottery.
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