Like thousands of farmers in Taiwan, Huang Rong-chen is in a dilemma. The 44-year-old pear grower must decide whether he should give up farming after Taiwan becomes a member of the WTO on Tuesday.
"I would like to switch to another job but I can't because I have been doing this all my life and this is the only trade I know," said Huang who owns a 0.6-hectare pear farm in Lishang, in central Taiwan.
"But I'll have to work out a solution, after assessing the WTO impact," he said following a five-hour drive from his farm to deliver pears to customers in Taipei.
Huang hinted he might have to follow in the footsteps of many other Taiwan businesses and move to China -- which joined the WTO in mid-December -- for survival.
Life is likely to get tougher for many farmers after Taiwan becomes the 144th member of the world trade body on Jan. 1 as lowered import tariffs for farm goods will weaken their competitiveness.
Authorities estimate some 22,500 farmers may be forced out of work in the first year after Taiwan's WTO accession and the number could increase to 33,000 by 2004.
To cushion the impact, the government plans to allocate NT$150 billion (US$4.3 billion) over the next few years in subsidies and offer job training to affected farmers as well as launch new farm programs.
While farmers worry over their future livelihood, shoppers welcome the nation's entry to the WTO as bringing cheaper fuel, cars, home appliances, cosmetics and foodstuffs due to tariff reductions.
Import duties for industrial products will be cut from 6.03 percent to an average 4.15 percent by 2004 and those for agricultural goods are to be lowered from 20.02 percent to 12.86 percent by 2007.
"Consumers would be the biggest winners because food prices will be lower and people have more varieties of products to choose from," said 32-year-old vegetable vendor Huang Chien-cheng.
"I'm delighted that there will be more choices when I go food shopping," said a 48-year-old housewife, surnamed Kao.
But one confident young fruit vendor said: "Taiwan-grown fruits are the best in the world. We are not afraid of competition."
Ironically, many Taiwanese farmers are switching operations to China whose cheaper agricultural products are now threatening their survival at home.
"A group of Lishang pear growers plan to explore the market in China next year. We had planned to visit there in September but the trip has been postponed after the terrorist attacks in the US," pear farmer Huang said.
"Many people in the orchid farming business have already started business in China," said orchid farmer Joseph Wu from Nantou county, in central Taiwan.
"They probably will be able to sell back home the orchid they grow in China in three to five years," Wu said.
The government bans direct trade across the Taiwan Strait and allows only 67.9 percent of a total of 8,282 industrial products and 23.1 percent of 2,092 agricultural items for import from China via third ports, mainly Hong Kong.
But analysts said Taiwan-China commerce and investment exchanges would proliferate as both sides would be required by the WTO to remove trade barriers.
"China's enormous market potential and greater access to the global markets will only draw more investments from Taiwan," said economics professor Liu Pi-chen (
Authorities here have offered to discuss with Beijing the opening of direct business and transportation links and pledged to widen import liberalization measures under the WTO framework.
Taiwan's exports to China totalled NT$20 billion last year out of bilateral trade worth NT$26.2 billion, but analysts said the nation's advantage would be gradually reduced as more low-priced goods from China enter the local market.
Taipei is also set to adopt a liberalization package involving China-bound investments, including the opening of direct investment in China, tomorrow.
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