With Taiwan's largest trading partner engaged in war, recovery for Taiwan's electronics and information industries is looking grim.
"The US market accounts for 40 percent of export orders for Taiwan's information and communications industries," said Chan Wen-nan (
Monday's military action is expected to push back a recovery in sales to at least the second quarter of next year, Chan said.
Especially hard hit will be products such as laptop and desktop personal computers and scanners, of which more than 40 percent of production is exported to the US, he said.
The center estimated that after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the US that the industry's production value this year would drop 15 percent from last year. The report added that an extended war would send that figure down even further.
The fourth quarter generally means strong sales for the sector because of seasonal demand as a result of Western holidays. Chen reasoned that if the war lasts longer than 60 days, the number of orders could fall far below original expectations.
An electronics industry pundit said that if the war doesn't end by January, the impact could be much deeper.
"The US market accounts for about 35 percent of Taiwan's electronics export orders ? if the war continues longer than three months, I suggest that electronic manufacturers switch their focus to other markets, such as China," said Rock Hsu (許勝雄), chairman of the Taiwan Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers' Association.
Operational and transportation cost are also set to increase, "which translates into lost sales," he said.
Companies in the Hsinchu Science-based Industrial Park (新竹科學園區), including Macronix International Corp (旺宏電子), Powerchip Semiconductor Corp (力晶半導體) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), expressed mixed reactions to the impact of US-led air strikes against Afghanistan.
At a meeting organized by the Ministry of Economic Affairs yesterday, Macronix president Miin Wu (吳敏求) said a prolonged military conflict between the US and Afghanistan will delay a possible recovery in the semiconductor sector until the second half of 2003.
Powerchip chairman Huang Chung-jen (
TSMC President Rick Tsai (
Park administration officials convened an emergency meeting yesterday, aiming to ensure the supply of raw materials such as water, fuel and electrical power.
"We have also decided to adopt security measures to protect the science park's safety," said James Lee (
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