China and Taiwan are poised to complete their decade-long quest to enter the WTO, but becoming members of the same club will not necessarily put them on speaking terms.
A WTO special working party approved on Friday an 800-page package of terms for China's accession and the accord will be rubber-stamped at a formal meeting today.
Taiwan, whose WTO bid is intertwined with China's, is expected to win approval tomorrow. That would clear the way for both Taipei and Beijing to join by the end of the year.
PHOTO: AP
"We think under the WTO framework, Communist China must talk to us, but what if they don't?" asked Chiu Kun-shuan (
"Can we sue them? It looks like wishful thinking on our side."
Last month, a blue ribbon committee to President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) recommended the government "aggressively open" to China and suggested discussing with Beijing ending a decades-old ban on direct transport links once they have joined the WTO.
But Beijing, which views self-governing Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be brought under its rule, by force if necessary, has refused to deal with Chen. Beijing insists Chen must accept its cherished "one China" principle. Chen refuses, saying the condition is tantamount to a surrender of Taiwan's 23 million people to the Communists.
"Unless Taiwan deals with `one China,' the `three links' won't happen," said Christina Liu (
Taiwan has banned direct trade, transport and postal links with China since a 1949 civil war split the nation.
Nonetheless, Chen's DPP held out hopes.
"All WTO members are equal. One can't discriminate against the other and you can't violate national treatment," said Yu Mei-mei (余莓莓), the DPP's deputy director of China affairs.
"It naturally will solve many problems across the [Taiwan] Strait. WTO provides a channel for dialogue and obliges both sides to abide by international rules," Yu said.
Under the free-trading WTO umbrella, unfair barriers and discrimination are generally barred. If a member perceives a violation of this most-favored-nation principle, it can mount a challenge through the WTO's dispute settlement system. If its complaint is upheld, it can win redress.
But the tangled web of problems between China and Taiwan stretches far beyond trade.
"By Communist China's definition, cross-strait relations are domestic, not international. It won't discuss cross-strait affairs under the WTO framework," said Kao Koong-lian (
"We can't count on the WTO to resolve our political disputes. This is something we must resolve on our own," Kao said.
Some analysts said Taiwan would feel more pressure to make political concessions as the economy slows. In stark contrast to China's 78 percent growth this year, Taiwan's gross domestic product is forecast to contract 0.4 percent.
"Taiwan has lost some negotiating leverage as China's economy is much stronger now than Taiwan's," said Liu.
Most of the pressure came from local businessmen, who have poured over US$60 billion into China despite the government's restrictions.
After today's formal approval, China's and Taiwan's membership applications will be confirmed by the WTO's ruling General Council -- essentially the same negotiators who form the working party -- or by ministers of all 142 member countries, who are due to meet in Qatar in November.
China and Taiwan will then summon their parliaments to ratify the entry packages and notify WTO headquarters in Geneva once this has been done. Exactly one month later, they will automatically become members.
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