Taiwan's economic growth rate will likely clock in at 6.1 percent next year, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may increase by 1.7 percent, the Cabinet-level Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD, 經建會) said yesterday.
And although the 921 quake may push down the overall economic growth rate this year to 5.3 percent from an earlier estimate of 5.74 percent, the nominal Gross National Product per person next year is likely to increase from US$12,858 to US$13,954, the CEPD said.
In addition, the agency said, domestic demand is likely to jump 2.7 percentage points from 2.9 percent this year to 5.6 percent next year.
"The normal situation is that the GDP's growth rate is pushed by the domestic demand, so we are basically back to normal," said CEPD Vice Chairman Lee Kao-chao (李高朝).
"Exports, investment and economic growth will all outperform."
In addition, Lee said the private investment growth rate next year would likely equal 1998 levels.
"The private investment growth rate will also increase from 2.7 percent in the current year to 10.3 percent next year, mostly due to the positive international environment supporting our exports," he said.
The IMF, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Washington Economic Forecast Association have estimated the world's economic growth rate for next year.
Their estimates are 3.5 percent, 2.9 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively.
Meanwhile, the export growth rate is likely to decrease from 4.3 percent to 3.0 percent, while imports are likley to grow slightly from 2.0 percent to 2.3 percent.
"The net foreign demand will contribute 0.7 percentage points to the GDP growth rate," Lee said.
"The contribution of net foreign demand will drop from approximately 44 percent this year to 11 percent next year."
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