Taiwan's export orders will post scant annual growth for September, hurt by the 921 earthquake that briefly idled industrial production, a Reuters Poll showed.
Surveyed analysts said they expected export orders to return to modest year-on-year growth in October, noting that Taiwan Power Co had ended post-quake power rationing on Oct. 10 as promised.
But October order levels will fall below that of the months preceding the quake, the said.
The poll of one overseas and 10 local economists forecast on average that foreign orders in September will show growth of just 0.58 percent year-on-year when the figures are posted by the economics ministry tomorrow.
August export orders rose 9.73 percent year-on-year to US$10.95 billion, reflecting a gathering recovery in the months before the quake from a big 1998 export setback blamed mainly on the Asian crisis. Viewed over the first eight months of 1999, export orders rose 5.03 percent year-on-year.
Economists initially expected September export orders to show brisk annual growth as the island's export industry, especially the sizzling technology sector, was entering high season.
"The sudden quake made those expectations impossible," said Taiwan Securities Investment Advisory economist Chuang Ming-shu. "Previously, we expected some 9-10 percent growth for September export orders. Now we'll be happy just to see positive growth."
Chuang forecast September orders falling 2.9 percent.
Core Pacific Securities economist Christine Wu said foreign buyers, worried over quake damage, had delayed orders or even redirected some to other countries to ensure timely deliveries.
Asked for their outlook on October export orders, the nine local economists all gave positive forecasts ranging between two to seven percent year-on-year -- still well below the 10 percent annual growth levels posted in July and August.
"Power is back and exporters are speeding shipments delayed since late September by the quake. October export order growth should have no problem surpassing five percent," said Hotung Securities research vice president Albert .
Economists said the electronics and information technology sectors should soon post high export growth as they faced minimal disruptions and are now moving into the cyclical fourth-quarter hot season.
Economists have noted a renewal of demand from Asia, which accounted for more than 40 percent of Taiwan export orders until localal currencies collapsed in 1997-98.
Taiwan's exports in the January-September period rose 6.2 percent compared to the year-earlier period.
September exports were slowed by the disaster, but still managed to eke out 0.9 percent growth from a year earlier.
Weeks before the quake, state forecasters said 1999 exports would rise 7.3 percent from 1998 levels as Asia recovered. Taiwan exports fell 9.4 percent in calendar 1998.
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