US-China trade talks are not expected to resume before mid-October, hurting Beijing's chances of joining the World Trade Organization this year, analysts said on Thursday.
But US and Chinese officials still hold out hope of a breakthrough by November. "So long as there's political will, we'll do it," Long Yongtu, China's top negotiator, said.
Business leaders, however, fear this year's window of opportunity may already have closed. John Foarde, vice president of the US-China Business Council, said it was clear that US President Bill Clinton and Chinese leader Jiang Zemin "don't want this deal."
To join the WTO, which sets global trading rules, China must win US support, as well as the backing of the European Union and others.
The deadline for China's accession is widely seen as late November, when WTO ministers launch the next round of global trade talks in Seattle. Any delay could leave China shut out of the WTO for years.
No headway was made on Monday in talks between US Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky and her Chinese counterpart, Trade Minister Shi Guangsheng, over US access to the vast Chinese market, potentially the world's largest.
Experts say the US-China talks have been marred by a dispute over market-opening concessions proposed by Premier Zhu Rongji during a state visit to Washington in April. The US wants China to recommit to that package, which included unprecedented tariff cuts and increased access in areas such as agriculture, telecommunications and financial services.
Barshefsky is also under pressure from Clinton and members of Congress to wring additional concessions out of Beijing to open China's financial and banking sectors, and to improve safeguards against surges in Chinese exports of steel and textiles.
But Beijing, in the aftermath of NATO's bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in May, has balked at US demands for more market-opening measures, and has claimed that Washington misunderstood Zhu's offer.
US officials have warned Beijing against backtracking on the April package, since that would outrage business groups and their allies in the Republican-controlled Congress.
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