Kurt Campbell, former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asia and Pacific affairs, recently published an article in Foreign Affairs magazine, saying that if the US wants to promote successful diplomatic policies in Asia, it has to appropriately engage with China politically and commercially. But, he wrote, it is important that the US prepares for potential failure as it pursues the engagement policy.
Campbell, senior vice president of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), came to Taipei last March to study the Asian policies the new US government should adopt. Based on his study, Campbell found that the US-China relationship in Asia is still tense. China is the country most eager to see the US' influence waning in Asia. Only when the US adopts an engagement policy toward China can it have enough diplomatic credit to successfully carry out a containment policy when necessary.
Campbell said that the US is paying more and more attention to its strategic significance in Asia. Currently there are three high tension areas in Asia: the Korean Peninsula; the tenser and more unpredictable Taiwan Strait, and the nuclear arms race in India and Pakistan.
He said that most Asian countries want to strengthen their ties with the US, but also worry that the US-China relationship will end up in clashes, with the Taiwan issue potentially triggering serious conflicts. Most Asian countries want to avoid grave crises without forcing the US to retreat from the region.
Campbell had the impression that outsiders always expected Taipei and Beijing to improve their diplomatic ties. But Taiwan's security has become gradually uncertain due to China's missile deployments, military practices, and introduction of new missile technology. China has the greater potential to decrease the US' influence in Asia. Beijing has criticized the US' attempts to contain China, and many generals from the People's Liberation Army (解放軍) have placed it at the top of their agenda.
Campbell said that strategic uncertainty makes many Asian countries, especially China, try to establish stronger security links with the US through diplomatic means. But a more obvious and quicker way, particularly for Japan and China, is to procure more weapons. Despite its less advanced armed forces, China is speeding up to improve its military strategy and hardware. Since the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, China has increased its missiles, fighter planes and C4I (command, control, communications and information) system.
Unlike China, Japan owns advanced fighter planes, AEGIS-equipped destroyers and well-trained troops but the role of Japan's military is restricted by the Constitution. Strengthening the US-Japan strategic relationship is crucial to the US' development in Asia. The US and Japan should freely exchange opinions on the Korean Peninsula, China, the National Missile Defense (NMD) system and the Taiwan issue. It is also vital that they encourage positive development within the region and develop alternative plans in case of emergency.
Campbell believed that both the US' intention to develop Theater Missile Defense (TMD) functions in Asia and its potential arms sales to Taiwan will damage US-China relations. He wrote that Asia's dependence on 100,000 US soldiers stationed in the region to maintain peace and stability has to change. Asian countries, along with the US, should set up a multinational security organization. The US' Asia policy should focus on crisis management with having to station troops in the region.
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