Doubts were surfacing within the international coalition Monday over the wisdom of using Afghanistan's Northern Alliance opposition as a proxy vehicle to topple the Taliban from power.
With no big deployment of American ground troops inside Afghanistan so far, US military officials seem to be hoping that opposition fighters will be able to take advantage of allied air strikes to advance on Kabul. An opposition attack is believed to be imminent.
But Pakistan's military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, warned yesterday that the Northern Alliance should not be allowed to exploit America's military operation.
In a blunt rebuff to Washington's apparent strategy, he described the opposition as a discredited force.
"We know the atrocities that were committed between the period when the Soviets left [Afghanistan] and before the Taliban came, when there were warlords butchering each other. I have heard stories that are hair-raising. The Northern Alliance must be kept in check to so we don't return to anarchy," he said.
General Musharraf's comments can be partly explained by the fact that the Northern Alliance is made up of ethnic minority groups hostile to Pakistan. It is also backed by Pakistan's old rival, India.
During his brief trip to Islamabad over the weekend, the British Prime Minister Tony Blair stressed that any post-Taliban administration would have to be broad-based and reflect Afghanistan's Pashtun majority, from whom the Taliban are almost exclusively drawn.
The problem western strategists face is that if the Northern Alliance seize Kabul, they will prove hard to dislodge.
Between 50 and 60 percent of all Afghans are Pashtun. The Tajiks and Uzbeks each form another 15 percent of the population, and the remaining 10 percent are Hazaras, Turkmens and Ismailis, a small Shia sect from the Pamir mountains who owe their allegiance to the Agha Khan. Tajiks dominate the Northern Alliance.
Uzbek forces loyal to General Rashid Dostam are trying to seize the northern town of Mazar-i-Sharif.
Most observers admit that the opposition's human rights record is, if anything, worse than the Tali-ban's. Between 1992 and 1996, as rival mujahidin groups fought for control of Kabul, troops loyal to the late opposition commander, Ahmad Shah Massoud, routinely indulged in looting, raping and killing.
General Musharraf cautioned yesterday that with the Taliban facing collapse, the Northern Alliance was the most likely candidate to step into the void. No successor government would succeed unless it reflected the country's ethnic mix, he said.
Ahmad Wali Masoud, charge d'affaires in London for the previous Afghan government, attempted to answer concerns over the human rights record of the United Front -- which includes the Northern Alliance -- and said that they would want to hold democratic elections after the Taliban's fall.
"This is our ultimate aim. If there are fair elections in Afghanistan, the problems will be solved," he said.
In a characteristically pragmatic volte-face, General Musharraf said yesterday that Pakistan would welcome one possible solution to the problem of a successor government: Afghanistan's 86-year-old deposed king, Zahir Shah.
He said that the Taliban could now lose control of Afghanistan's main cities through a popular revolt.
Abdullah Abdullah, the Northern Alliance government's foreign minister, claimed yesterday that several Taliban commanders had jumped ship, bringing with them as many as 1,000 men.
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