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Editorial: Lien Chan and the great white whale

KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) never ceases to surprise. After his humiliation in March 2000 he might have been expected to retire into the decent obscurity of the political also-ran. Instead he engineers a palace coup to throw out his old boss Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), assume leadership of the party and completely reverse the thrust of its ideological direction, providing us with an astounding contrast between the man who headed an election campaign so bad it insulted the weakest of intelligences and an expert party intriguer ruthless enough to stab his patron of many years standing in the back.

Far from being humiliated Lien's subsequent behavior was a monument to his own self-esteem. This was rewarded with a raspberry by the voters in last December's legislative election who showed they either preferred the green camp or the underfunded and underorganized PFP, as the KMT's seats in the legislature sank to only 30 percent of the total. After a humiliation that would drive most people out of politics Lien once again started empire building. Now he appears to have set his heart on the presidential nomination for 2004. To this purpose, as reported elsewhere in today's paper, he has brought back John Kuan (關中), Mr. Vote-buying himself, to play a key strategic role. We assume that Lien thinks he can buy the election and by the wielding of the KMT's massive wealth he can persuade a strapped-for-cash James Soong (宋楚瑜) to play second fiddle on a pan-blue ticket. We are puzzled as to why Lien might think that elections in Taiwan are still buyable, even with the deployment of Kuan's repertoire of black arts.

But pity the DPP for the tough choice they now have to make. Parting the KMT from its ill-gotten gains has always been a DPP goal but heaven forbid that it should do anything to interfere with the smooth sailing of Lien's bizarre dream that 18 months from now he can be elected president. The news that he is serious about this ambition can only fill the green camp with glee, as it effectively gives Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) lease on the presidential office another four years to run.

What might undo Lien in his Captain Ahab-like quest is however his own desire to see a blue-camp challenger for the Kaohsiung mayoral election chosen by opinion poll. If this is regarded as suitable for the good citizens of Kaohsiung, why is it not a suitable method to choose a presidential candidate? And how on earth could Lien have a hope of winning such a poll? Of course there are ways to weight polls, a common one in Taiwan being to say that they are "for reference" and the final decision will be taken after "other considerations" -- presumably whether this was the result that was wanted -- are factored in. Then again in Lien's case, relying on the dog-like loyalty of the KMT rank and file to whoever is called chairman, he might simply say that, unlike in Kaohsiung where there are several candidates contesting the nomination, there is simply no controversy in the KMT over whom its presidential candidate should be. We can be sure Kuan will come up with some scheme to get his new patron the nomination he wants. And let's hope he does, because it is important that Lien should run, important because he will lose and Taiwan's independence, which he appears so eager to compromise, will be safe while a second Chen administration fleshes out the important policy skeleton recently announced, ie, the centrality of "one county on each side" of the Strait and -- the real point of Chen's referendum remarks -- Taiwan's people deciding Taiwan's destiny.
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