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The forthcoming Chinese invasion

KURT CAMPBELL, SENIOR vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), recently co-authored an article with Derek Mitchell, senior fellow for Asia at CSIS ("Crisis in the Taiwan Strait?" in Foreign Affairs, July-August 2001). The authors argue that unless the US takes concrete steps to "dissuade the PRC from continuing its coercive course toward Taiwan," a conflict in the Taiwan Strait is close at hand. They recommend that "the US maintain an active military presence in the region to sustain deterrence."

Richard Russel, a professor at the US National Defense University, published an intriguing thesis titled "What if ... China Attacks Taiwan" (in Parameters, Autumn 2001). This paper was introduced to the readers of the Taipei Times by Washington staff reporter Charles Snyder ("US expert warns of early Taiwan Strait war," Sept. 1). Subsequently, columnist George Will also wrote a summary of Russel's ideas in the Washington Post ("Another Unthinkable Scenario," Oct. 7). Russel describes a blitzkrieg in which the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will use deception (smiling-face diplomacy and large-scale joint-force exercises to cover up mobilization) and brutal tactics (missiles armed with nuclear warheads and chemical agents followed by an airborne assault) to consolidate control of the main island before the US can even react. Russel concludes that "war over the Taiwan Strait could come sooner rather than later." Since most academic studies of a Taiwan war have used 2005 as a benchmark ever since the February 1999 US Department of Defense report on the security situation in the Taiwan Strait, Russel presumably means that the PLA will invade Taiwan before 2005.

Some observers in Taiwan and abroad believe that China will not launch an assault on Taiwan until after the Olympic games are concluded in 2008, to avoid a boycott of the Beijing games. The Olympics, however, may actually prompt China to invade Taiwan well before 2005, to gain a cooling-down period of sufficient duration for international denunciation to subside. Despite its atrocious behavior in Tiananmen Square, China succeeded in gaining the privilege of hosting the 2008 Olympic Games. China can count on the commercial interests of the major powers eventually to prevail over disapproval of its military aggression. Even if adverse global reaction were to result in a massive boycott of the Beijing Games, China would still come out ahead. While the Olympics may generate at most a few billion dollars of profit for Beijing, the acquisition of Taiwan would be worth several trillion dollars. With control of the sea lanes and airspace around Taiwan, China would also be able to compel Japan and South Korea to sever their defense ties to the US. China would be well on its way to becoming the hegemon of Asia.

The US is worried about the looming conflict in the Taiwan Strait. That is why EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft make regular surveillance sorties near China's coast. It is also why, in the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) issued on Sept. 30, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld recommends specific measures to enhance the US military presence in the region. For the US Navy, he wants to increase aircraft carrier battlegroup presence in the western Pacific; will assign home ports to an additional three to four surface combatants and guided-missile submarines; and will try to conduct training for coastal warfare for the Marine Corps. For the air force, Rumsfeld plans to increase contingency basing in the Pacific and Indian oceans, and ensure infrastructure for refueling and logistics to support operations in the western Pacific area.

After the hideous attacks of Sept. 11, however, the US government must concentrate its energy on the war on terrorism. Implementing the QDR recommendations may be delayed. In its preoccupation with the campaign in Afghanistan, the US could leave Taiwan and the US forces deployed in East Asia vulnerable to Chinese attack. This is the time for Taipei to urge greater US military presence in the western Pacific, as well as closer cooperation between the militaries of the US and Taiwan in joint defense planning, training, and bolstering Taiwan's air defenses and information warfare capabilities.

The DPP government also needs to educate the populace about the growing prospect of military conflict, install civil defense systems, mobilize the citizenry to identify and incarcerate China's fifth column agents, take precautionary measures against terrorist attacks, and lift the morale of the military and civilians to defend Taiwan's hard-won freedom. All these tasks must be initiated without delay. If the Taiwanese people are properly prepared psychologically for a coming war, they can successfully repel a PLA invasion. Without such preparation, Taiwan's democracy will be in mortal danger.

One thing favors Taiwan, namely Beijing's fear of a failed attempt to subdue Taiwan. Such a debacle could well lead to the downfall of the Chinese Communist Party, especially if there are heavy casualties and the US and other nations close their markets to China's exports.

If the Taipei government can inspire the great majority of its people to unite and fight for the nation's survival as a democracy and as a de facto independent nation, and quietly build up Taiwan's state of readiness, Taiwan could deter a Chinese invasion long enough for the US to build up its air and naval power in the vicinity of Taiwan after America's war on terrorism becomes an integral part of its national defense framework.

For Taiwan, the best way to avoid war is to get ready for one.

Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania.
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