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Editorial: The emperor's new clothes

Confederation? Don't waste your time.

The KMT's new confederation policy can be all things to all people. For unificationists, it provides the most solid framework yet for how unification can be achieved. The majority of the population, who are in no hurry to unify, should like it because it promises the status quo (almost) forever with the removal of China's military threat. Even some realists of a pro-independence stamp might find it attractive. After all, they might reason, China is not going to renounce its claim to Taiwan, so better, perhaps, to put dreams of de jure independence aside and do a deal with China which will guarantee the de facto independence that Taiwan now enjoys. The appeal of confederation is, therefore, right across the political spectrum.

It is, however, precisely this broad appeal that should arouse suspicion. Policies that manage to appeal to the extremes usually turn out to be hollow in the center. And so it seems with the confederation idea, which is riddled with problems, that no amount of the KMT's aspirational twaddle will cut through.

A confederation is the voluntary coming together of two independent sovereignties, the better to pursue shared goals. Each of the two sovereignties retains the right to opt out of the arrangement. Each keeps whatever rights it wishes to keep and only surrenders to the central government those powers about which an agreement has been reached that a united front is better than a divided one -- most usually defense and foreign affairs -- while the central government usually has no power to enforce its diktats upon either of the members without their consent -- the major difference between a confederation and a federal system.

How would Taiwan and China fit into such a framework? Since apparently each side will retain their own defense institutions and conduct their own foreign affairs, it seems incumbent upon the KMT to explain just what the "confederation" will be. What aspects of Taiwan's affairs will Beijing have a say in?

Nothing that the people of Taiwan don't want it to have, seems to be the KMT's answer. That seems to be just about everything you can think of. So would there be a central government structure at all? What for? What would it do? Or is "confederation" just another word for two independent sovereignties talking to each other to coordinate, where possible, policy objectives and implementation. But this is no more than has been on offer since 1991 were Beijing willing to renounce the use of force and treat Taiwan as an equal.

So the KMT's "great breakthrough" in policy seems to be substantially meaningless. If it isn't to be so then we need to know how things would work with China which means we need to know what Beijing will accept. Nothing, appears to be the answer. Establishing a confederation would involve China's recognition of Taiwan's independent sovereignty, that Taiwan was an equal and that Taiwan could voluntarily dissolve the relationship, all of which are anathema to Beijing.

The KMT might argue that Beijing's current intransigent position is not the way to assess the viability of a new concept. This was Beijing's view before the confederation proposal. But once it realizes the obvious advantages of the idea it will change its recalcitrant ways.

In response, we can only say with some skepticism that this has to be shown, and had better be before the people of Taiwan pay any attention to the confederation idea. The KMT has devised confederation as a cross-strait panacea for the election. People will not doubt debate it at length in the months to come. But until the KMT can prove that Beijing is prepared to listen to the idea -- that is, that it might actually work -- there seems no reason why anybody in Taiwan should care.
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