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No amount of goodwill will help with China

Like someone under a magic spell, Taiwan seems to have been circumambulating around the "one China" mantra that Beijing continues to chant.

Taiwan may very well fall into the "one China" boat if it spins around it for too long.

Therefore Taiwan must be firm on its stance or risk losing direction. This will hurt the confidence of the Taiwanese people and create misunderstandings internationally, even if China does not take advantage of the situation.

For Taiwan, extending too much goodwill on "one China" does not help matters. Nor will China accept such goodwill, for the following reasons:

1. As China's social conflicts escalate by the day, Beijing must use the Taiwan issue to instigate "nationalism" and divert public attention. Therefore, Beijing must respond with dissatisfaction to any gesture from Taiwan.

2. In their power struggles, Beijing's top echelons have to draw their arguments from the unification issue. The Chinese military in particular wants to use the issue to expand its power and increase its budget. High-level officials in Beijing will not appear soft on the issue, for fear of being labeled "traitors."

3. The voracious Chinese Communist Party has always bullied the weak and feared the strong. Therefore, it will not be satisfied with any gesture from Taiwan. Goodwill and softness will only embolden Beijing to demand even more up until it brings Taiwan to its knees without a war. Nevertheless, an appropriate expression of goodwill is necessary on Taiwan's part, to highlight the nature of China's thuggish regime.

The way Beijing used the "one China" issue for its cantankerous rows is also very much an obfuscation. For example, soon after former President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) visited the US in 1996, China denied the two sides had ever agreed on "`one China,' with the two sides free to make its own interpretation." Beijing was looking for an excuse for more military and verbal threats.

In May, Tang Shubei (唐樹備), vice chairman of China's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, said some people in Taiwan have twisted the original consensus into "`one China' with each side free to make its own interpretation."

However, as soon as Taiwan said that was not what both had agreed upon, Beijing accused Taiwan of overturning a bilateral consensus. After some people interpreted President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) recent remarks as recognition of "`one China' with each side free to make its own interpretation," Beijing turned around and said that was not the consensus.

Beijing keeps flip-flopping, but Taiwan does not need to jump along. Beijing believes "one China" means the PRC, but sometimes it seems to hint that it could be something else.

However, as soon as someone in Taiwan gets excited about the message, Beijing denies all the assertions. It recently said the discussions on "one China" can be "different internally and externally" (內外有別). To the outside world, "one China" will be the PRC, but internally the two sides will be on a par. It sounded like Beijing would recognize the existence of the ROC. But how can such parity be real if the UN does not recognize the ROC and Beijing continues to browbeat it in the international arena? Even if Beijing does recognize the ROC, so what? Under China's one-party rule, Beijing will be the central government and Taiwan will have to follow its orders. Can Taiwan accept this kind of "unification"?

Taiwan does not need to dance along with China over names. In deciding whether or not to accept the "one China" principle, the key question is: what kind of regime is Beijing?

Paul Lin is a political commentator based in New York.
Translated by Francis Huang
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