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Thinking twice about three links

The question of the "three links" has come to prominence now that the election is over. What follows is a little scenario that could occur if the "three links" are established with China.

A regular "China Eastern Airlines" flight from Shanghai to Kaohsiung is hijacked after take off. China scrambles two Mig-21 fighters and they chase the plane to the mid-line over the Taiwan Strait in an attempt to turn it back. A Taiwanese radar station discovers the two Migs and sends two Mirage fighters to intercept them. A cross-strait dogfight begins. The Migs disengage and return to base. After landing, the pilot of the passenger plane says there was no hijacking. It was all a misunderstanding.

There were no casualties from the skirmish, but direct air links allowed China to probe Taiwan's air defense for weaknesses. It would be tantamount to surrendering control of Taiwan's air space. Would we even need an air force if direct air links were established? Similarly, if sea links were established, the Chinese navy could follow Chinese ships into Taiwanese waters under the pretext of searching for smugglers. Even if this didn't lead to war, it would seriously disrupt the work of Taiwan's navy. Would any of Taiwan's armed forces be worth having after the "three links?"

When I was working in Seoul, there were many instances of military and civil planes, fishing vessels and torpedo boats defecting to South Korea -- but there were also instances of China sending spies pretending to be defectors to test Taiwan and South Korea's defenses and sow discord between the two countries.

We cannot let our guard down in the face of a threatening China, or else we will surely be vanquished. The scenario I bring up is not without basis and if the people of Taiwan do not maintain a basic vigilance against China, then can we viably institute the "three links?" The KMT relied on national defense to bolster its rule, but can the DPP do without military defense?

Rick Chu is the associate editor in chief of the Taipei Times.
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