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Sat, Dec 29, 2001 - Page 4 News List

2001 World's Top Stories: Number four -- world economy

Global downturn not completely unexpected

By Michael Logan  /  STAFF WRITER

It was a blow many saw coming.

The dotcom bubble burst in April last year. Capital spending slowed. Inventories piled up as high-tech CEOs misjudged demand for their products. The NASDAQ lost more than half its value -- an indicator of the bad times ahead.

At the beginning of 2001, all the signs pointed to a recession in the US. That fear proved well founded.

In November, the National Bureau of Economic Research -- a US organization that dates economic cycles -- said America's current recession had started in March.

It was about the same time that Taiwan's economy also turned recessionary, posting its first-ever contraction in the second quarter.

And misery loves company. Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong, competitors for a share of the lucrative US market, all took hard hits.

Japan of course had a recession, too, it's third in 10 years. But beyond the statistical noteworthiness of the event, few Japanese could discern the difference between the latest contraction and a decade of anemic growth.

What's striking about the global downturn is just how widespread it has been. The US, Japan and Europe may see their first collective contraction since the 1970s.

That's hurting everyone from Finland to Mexico -- a sign the global economy has become truly that.

But now things are looking up. The US Fed since Jan. 3 has cut interest rates 11 times to a 40-year low of 1.75 percent. That's given a boost to the financial markets, which have gorged themselves on cheap cash.

Still, businesses have yet to use the money for capital investment in the real economy.

Though the attacks in the US gave the markets a scare, global indices have returned to their pre-Sept. 11 levels.

While analysts are unsure just how strong the impending recovery will be, they're certain that the New Year will be better than the last.

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