Companies in the US expanded last month at the fastest pace in almost four years, signaling the economic recovery is gaining speed heading into the new year.
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc said on Wednesday its business barometer rose to 60, exceeding the most optimistic estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level since January 2006. Readings above 50 signal expansion.
Stimulus programs and discounting have propelled a rebound in global sales that is reducing stockpiles, which may spur manufacturers to further increase production in coming months. Caterpillar Inc is among companies that may recall dismissed staff, pointing to gains in employment that will give consumers the means to boost spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy.
“Manufacturing is now moving into recovery,” said David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Inc in New York, whose estimate was the highest among economists surveyed. “Inventories are rebuilding and exports are looking strong, with the Asian economies looking firmer and the dollar weak.”
Stocks drifted between gains and losses as lower metal prices dragged down commodity producers, offsetting the rise in the business barometer. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 0.3 percent to 1,123.37 at 10:58am in New York.
Economists projected the Chicago index would drop to 55.1 from 56.1 in November, based on the median estimate of 53 projections in the Bloomberg survey. Forecasts ranged from 52 to 58.5.
The group’s gauge of orders climbed to the highest level in more than two years and its measure of employment showed growth for the first time since November 2007, the month before the recession began. Indexes of production and order backlogs also improved.
Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, will bring back some laid-off workers next year as sales improve, chief executive officer Jim Owens said.
“We’ll gradually begin to call people back and to rebuild our overall sales and ability to ship product,” Owens said in a Dec. 11 interview with Bloomberg Television. “I think it will gradually begin to pick up as 2010 unfolds.”
Caterpillar cut about 18,700 full-time jobs and about the same number of temporary workers since December 2008 as the global recession reduced demand. The Peoria, Illinois-based company predicts sales in the new year will increase as much as 25 percent from the midpoint of last year’s forecast range.
Economists watch the Chicago index for an early reading on the outlook for overall US manufacturing, which makes up about 12 percent of the economy. The group has said their membership includes both manufacturers and service providers, making the gauge a measure of overall growth.
The Tempe, Arizona-based Institute for Supply Management’s factory index probably rose this month to 54 from 53.6 in November, a survey median showed. That report is due on Monday.
The world’s largest economy expanded at a 2.2 percent pace from July through September after a yearlong contraction that was the worst since the 1930s, figures from the Commerce Department showed last week. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast growth to pick up to a 3 percent pace in the fourth quarter and average 2.6 percent for all of this year.
Exports rose for the sixth month in October as economies worldwide rebounded from the global economic slump. A 13 percent drop in the dollar since March 5 against a basket of six major currencies also making US goods more competitive to overseas buyers.
Inventories at US companies rose in October for the first time in more than a year, the government said on Dec. 11, a sign firms are boosting production in line with rising sales.
United Parcel Service Inc chief executive officer Scott Davis said on Dec. 2 that shipping demand was starting to improve as companies rebuild inventory and consumers began holiday shopping. UPS, the world’s largest package-delivery company, is considered a bellwether for the economy because it handles goods ranging from auto parts to electronics to clothing.
“Inventory has gotten real low,” Davis said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We think there will be some replenishment of inventories going forward, so the outlook is much better.”
ROLLER-COASTER RIDE: More than five earthquakes ranging from magnitude 4.4 to 5.5 on the Richter scale shook eastern Taiwan in rapid succession yesterday afternoon Back-to-back weather fronts are forecast to hit Taiwan this week, resulting in rain across the nation in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration said yesterday, as it also warned residents in mountainous regions to be wary of landslides and rockfalls. As the first front approached, sporadic rainfall began in central and northern parts of Taiwan yesterday, the agency said, adding that rain is forecast to intensify in those regions today, while brief showers would also affect other parts of the nation. A second weather system is forecast to arrive on Thursday, bringing additional rain to the whole nation until Sunday, it
CONDITIONAL: The PRC imposes secret requirements that the funding it provides cannot be spent in states with diplomatic relations with Taiwan, Emma Reilly said China has been bribing UN officials to obtain “special benefits” and to block funding from countries that have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, a former UN employee told the British House of Commons on Tuesday. At a House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee hearing into “international relations within the multilateral system,” former Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) employee Emma Reilly said in a written statement that “Beijing paid bribes to the two successive Presidents of the [UN] General Assembly” during the two-year negotiation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Another way China exercises influence within the UN Secretariat is
LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE: The agency advised the public to avoid visiting mountainous regions due to more expected aftershocks and rainfall from a series of weather fronts A series of earthquakes over the past few days were likely aftershocks of the April 3 earthquake in Hualien County, with further aftershocks to be expected for up to a year, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. Based on the nation’s experience after the quake on Sept. 21, 1999, more aftershocks are possible over the next six months to a year, the agency said. A total of 103 earthquakes of magnitude 4 on the local magnitude scale or higher hit Hualien County from 5:08pm on Monday to 10:27am yesterday, with 27 of them exceeding magnitude 5. They included two, of magnitude
Taiwan’s first drag queen to compete on the internationally acclaimed RuPaul’s Drag Race, Nymphia Wind (妮妃雅), was on Friday crowned the “Next Drag Superstar.” Dressed in a sparkling banana dress, Nymphia Wind swept onto the stage for the final, and stole the show. “Taiwan this is for you,” she said right after show host RuPaul announced her as the winner. “To those who feel like they don’t belong, just remember to live fearlessly and to live their truth,” she said on stage. One of the frontrunners for the past 15 episodes, the 28-year-old breezed through to the final after weeks of showcasing her unique