The US economy will start adding jobs some time in the first quarter of next year, ending a so-called “jobless” recovery that has plagued the world’s largest economy since the summer months, a survey released yesterday said.
But the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), which surveyed 48 top US economists between Oct. 24 and Nov. 5, warned the gains would be minimal and unemployment would remain high through the entire year.
NABE said the US unemployment rate would average 9.6 percent in the final three months of next year. It currently stands at 10.2 percent, the highest rate in 26 years.
The US economy pulled out of its deepest recession in seven decades some time over the summer, growing at a 3.5 percent clip in the third quarter.
But jobs are still being lost, putting US President Barack Obama under pressure to take more action to stimulate job growth. Congress is considering adopting additional stimulus measures in December.
But NABE economists warned that government debt was already dangerously high and suggested it was better to simply let the economic downturn run its course.
“While the recovery has been jobless so far, that should soon change,” said NABE president Lynn Reaser, who is also an economist at Point Loma Nazarene University. “Within the next few months, companies should be adding instead of cutting jobs.”
In the survey, 45 percent of economists suggested the Obama administration reduce public spending levels next year, while 41 percent said the current fiscal stimulus measures were about right. Only 15 percent said more stimulus was needed.
The US budget deficit ballooned to US$1.4 trillion, or 10 percent of economic output, in the 2009 fiscal year, which lasted until the end of September.
NABE also raised its growth forecast for next year, predicting a 3.2 percent growth rate over the year, but said households were likely to fall behind in the broader recovery.
Consumer spending will remain “lackluster” as Americans get used to saving more and spending less. The rate of saving by Americans is expected to reach 4 percent, the highest level in 12 years.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week said he expected modest growth next year, but warned of “important headwinds” that could derail the recovery, including constrained bank lending and the ongoing job losses.
The government is aiming to recruit 1,096 foreign English teachers and teaching assistants this year, the Ministry of Education said yesterday. The foreign teachers would work closely with elementary and junior-high instructors to create and teach courses, ministry official Tsai Yi-ching (蔡宜靜) said. Together, they would create an immersive language environment, helping to motivate students while enhancing the skills of local teachers, she said. The ministry has since 2021 been recruiting foreign teachers through the Taiwan Foreign English Teacher Program, which offers placement, salary, housing and other benefits to eligible foreign teachers. Two centers serving northern and southern Taiwan assist in recruiting and training
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