South Korea’s central bank said yesterday it now expects the economy to shrink 1.6 percent this year, revising its earlier forecast of a 2.4 percent contraction, with a return to positive growth in the second half.
The Bank of Korea also raised its growth projection for next year to 3.6 percent from a 3.5 percent forecast in April.
The finance ministry and private economists have made similar upward adjustments in the belief that Asia’s fourth largest economy has touched bottom.
“Korean GDP in the second half is expected to recover to the level before the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September,” the central bank said in a statement.
It said the economy will probably expand 0.2 percent year-on-year in the second half following an expected 3.4 percent decline in the first half.
But it cautioned of downside risks from rising oil prices and the waning effects of the fiscal stimulus.
The bank said exports are now expected to fall 2.8 percent this year, less than a previous prediction of a 9.9 percent slump.
Private spending would likely fall 1.4 percent this year compared with an earlier estimate of a 2.6 percent decline.
Facility investment is expected to tumble 15.1 percent this year while construction investment will probably gain 2.2 percent.
The economy narrowly avoided falling into recession in the first quarter by expanding 0.1 percent from the previous quarter, after tumbling 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.
Late last month the finance ministry said it expected GDP to contract 1.5 percent this year compared to its earlier forecast of a 2 percent contraction.
It maintained its growth forecast of 4 percent for next year.
The central bank said the country will likely shed 110,000 jobs this year, down from an earlier forecast of 130,000, on the back of government efforts to boost job creation.
RETHINK? The defense ministry and Navy Command Headquarters could take over the indigenous submarine project and change its production timeline, a source said Admiral Huang Shu-kuang’s (黃曙光) resignation as head of the Indigenous Submarine Program and as a member of the National Security Council could affect the production of submarines, a source said yesterday. Huang in a statement last night said he had decided to resign due to national security concerns while expressing the hope that it would put a stop to political wrangling that only undermines the advancement of the nation’s defense capabilities. Taiwan People’s Party Legislator Vivian Huang (黃珊珊) yesterday said that the admiral, her older brother, felt it was time for him to step down and that he had completed what he
Taiwan has experienced its most significant improvement in the QS World University Rankings by Subject, data provided on Sunday by international higher education analyst Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) showed. Compared with last year’s edition of the rankings, which measure academic excellence and influence, Taiwanese universities made great improvements in the H Index metric, which evaluates research productivity and its impact, with a notable 30 percent increase overall, QS said. Taiwanese universities also made notable progress in the Citations per Paper metric, which measures the impact of research, achieving a 13 percent increase. Taiwanese universities gained 10 percent in Academic Reputation, but declined 18 percent
CHINA REACTS: The patrol and reconnaissance plane ‘transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace,’ the 7th Fleet said, while Taipei said it saw nothing unusual The US 7th Fleet yesterday said that a US Navy P-8A Poseidon flew through the Taiwan Strait, a day after US and Chinese defense heads held their first talks since November 2022 in an effort to reduce regional tensions. The patrol and reconnaissance plane “transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace,” the 7th Fleet said in a news release. “By operating within the Taiwan Strait in accordance with international law, the United States upholds the navigational rights and freedoms of all nations.” In a separate statement, the Ministry of National Defense said that it monitored nearby waters and airspace as the aircraft
UNDER DISCUSSION: The combatant command would integrate fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups to defend waters closest to the coastline, a source said The military could establish a new combatant command as early as 2026, which would be tasked with defending Taiwan’s territorial waters 24 nautical miles (44.4km) from the nation’s coastline, a source familiar with the matter said yesterday. The new command, which would fall under the Naval Command Headquarters, would be led by a vice admiral and integrate existing fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups, along with the Naval Maritime Surveillance and Reconnaissance Command, said the source, who asked to remain anonymous. It could be launched by 2026, but details are being discussed and no final timetable has been announced, the source