Japan announced an unexpected trade surplus yesterday as its export slump continued to ease, adding to hopes the world’s No. 2 economy is through the worst of its deepest post-war recession.
The trade surplus of ¥68.95 billion (US$728 million) for last month was down 85 percent year on year, government data showed, but markets had expected a deficit of about ¥69.5 billion.
It was Japan’s third straight monthly surplus, following a record deficit in January when the global economic downturn had triggered a collapse in worldwide demand for the country’s cars, electronics and other goods.
“Japanese exports appear to have bottomed in February, led by exports to Asia,” said Kyohei Morita, chief Japan economist at Barclays Capital.
“We believe exports will continue to follow a moderate recovery trend, led by exports to Asia, especially China,” he said.
Exports were down 39.1 percent last month from a year earlier, marking an improvement compared with a year-on-year drop of 45.5 percent in March and a record fall of 49.4 percent in February.
Exports posted a second straight increase month-on-month, said Naoki Murakami, chief economist at Monex Securities.
“But the pace of the recovery in exports is not very strong,” he said.
Japan said last week that its economy suffered its sharpest contraction on record in the three months to March, shrinking 4 percent from the previous quarter.
The economy will probably avoid a contraction in the current quarter thanks to government stimulus spending and a recovery in exports, said Masamichi Adachi, an economist at JPMorgan Securities.
“But that doesn’t mean we’ll have sustainable growth through the next few years because the fiscal stimulus will fade away next year,” he said. “In the short term, we are rather optimistic. But after that there are many challenges facing the Japanese economy.”
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