Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) said yesterday China could achieve 8 percent growth this year despite a worsening global economic crisis, and promised more efforts to boost exports and create jobs.
“We face unprecedented difficulties and challenges,” Wen said in a nationally televised speech to China’s National People’s Congress.
However, he said, “we will be able to achieve this target” of 8 percent growth.
Wen promised to “dramatically increase” spending to counter the impact of the global slowdown that has thrown at least 20 million Chinese migrants out of work.
But Wen made no mention of possible new stimulus measures on top of a 4 trillion yuan (US$586 billion) package unveiled in November.
That was likely to disappoint Chinese financial markets, which rose on Wednesday on hopes he might announce a new round of spending worth up to 10 trillion yuan.
Private sector economists forecast growth this year as low as 5.6 percent — the weakest in nearly two decades — after economic expansion plunged to a seven-year low of 6.8 percent in the final quarter of last year.
Beijing’s stimulus is aimed at reducing reliance on exports, which plunged by 17.5 percent in January, by pumping money into the economy through higher spending on public works to boost domestic consumption.
The government points to rising bank lending and power consumption as signs its slump might already be bottoming out.
Some analysts say growth could rebound as early as the quarter beginning next month, but others say China cannot recover until its key US and European export markets do, which might not happen until next year.
“The stimulus package is certainly a big one, but we don’t think that alone is going to change the direction of the economy. The downward momentum is clear,” said Fitch Ratings analyst James McCormack.
He said he expected this year’s growth to fall to 5.6 percent.
“It’s not a catastrophe, but it’s a hard landing,” McCormack said. “We just don’t think the Chinese economy can recover until the global economy recovers.”
Chinese manufacturing contracted last month for a fifth month, though at a slower rate than previously, surveys released this week showed.
Wen promised more help to restructure and modernize industry, a streamlining of tax collection and other steps to make the economy more efficient.
He also said Beijing would take more steps to boost exports, a move that might strain relations with trading partners that are trying to keep up foreign sales of their own goods.
Wen said the exchange rate for the yuan would be kept “basically stable.”
RETHINK? The defense ministry and Navy Command Headquarters could take over the indigenous submarine project and change its production timeline, a source said Admiral Huang Shu-kuang’s (黃曙光) resignation as head of the Indigenous Submarine Program and as a member of the National Security Council could affect the production of submarines, a source said yesterday. Huang in a statement last night said he had decided to resign due to national security concerns while expressing the hope that it would put a stop to political wrangling that only undermines the advancement of the nation’s defense capabilities. Taiwan People’s Party Legislator Vivian Huang (黃珊珊) yesterday said that the admiral, her older brother, felt it was time for him to step down and that he had completed what he
Taiwan has experienced its most significant improvement in the QS World University Rankings by Subject, data provided on Sunday by international higher education analyst Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) showed. Compared with last year’s edition of the rankings, which measure academic excellence and influence, Taiwanese universities made great improvements in the H Index metric, which evaluates research productivity and its impact, with a notable 30 percent increase overall, QS said. Taiwanese universities also made notable progress in the Citations per Paper metric, which measures the impact of research, achieving a 13 percent increase. Taiwanese universities gained 10 percent in Academic Reputation, but declined 18 percent
CHINA REACTS: The patrol and reconnaissance plane ‘transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace,’ the 7th Fleet said, while Taipei said it saw nothing unusual The US 7th Fleet yesterday said that a US Navy P-8A Poseidon flew through the Taiwan Strait, a day after US and Chinese defense heads held their first talks since November 2022 in an effort to reduce regional tensions. The patrol and reconnaissance plane “transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace,” the 7th Fleet said in a news release. “By operating within the Taiwan Strait in accordance with international law, the United States upholds the navigational rights and freedoms of all nations.” In a separate statement, the Ministry of National Defense said that it monitored nearby waters and airspace as the aircraft
UNDER DISCUSSION: The combatant command would integrate fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups to defend waters closest to the coastline, a source said The military could establish a new combatant command as early as 2026, which would be tasked with defending Taiwan’s territorial waters 24 nautical miles (44.4km) from the nation’s coastline, a source familiar with the matter said yesterday. The new command, which would fall under the Naval Command Headquarters, would be led by a vice admiral and integrate existing fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups, along with the Naval Maritime Surveillance and Reconnaissance Command, said the source, who asked to remain anonymous. It could be launched by 2026, but details are being discussed and no final timetable has been announced, the source