Observers question impetus of TNK-BP arrests in Moscow

The arrest last week of two British-educated men on spying charges in Moscow was less a Cold War-style incident than a Kremlin power game around who controls oil giant TNK-BP, observers said.

Russia's service said on Thursday that two Russian-American brothers had been charged with industrial espionage just a day after raids on the offices of TNK-BP and BP in Moscow.

"Business cards of representatives of the CIA and foreign defense departments" were found in the raid, security services said.

Despite spy allegations, analysts say the key to the matter was control over Russia's third-largest oil company.

Half-owned a group of Russian billionaires and half by British oil major BP, TNK-BP is a rarity in the Russian energy industry where state control now dominates.

Roland Nash, chief economist at Renaissance Capital investment bank in Moscow, notes that the arrests will inevitably remind investors of the way "the government wrested control of Sakhalin from Shell."

Shell Sakhalin-2, one of the biggest private oil and gas projects in the world, but was forced to sell to state-run gas giant Gazprom last year after coming under pressure from Russian authorities over alleged environmental violations.

Russian authorities said on Friday that they would investigate TNK-BP's Samotlor oil field in Siberia, one of the largest in the country.

"The current events are consistent with the negotiating tactics of the Russian government in the past," said Chris Weafer, head of strategy at URALSIB bank in Moscow.

"The event is a surprise, but the fact that they are putting on pressure is not," he said.

TNK-BP has had trouble with the authorities before.

Last year, the company agreed to sell the Kovytka gas field in Siberia to Gazprom after being accused of being in breach of contract.

Now, the state wants the company to be put in Russian hands with Gazprom again the likely winner, analysts said.

"It has long been speculated that TNK-BP is on Gazprom's target acquisition list, and the events of the past few days will add to that," Nash wrote in an investment note. "TNK-BP now appears to be under considerable pressure to reach an agreement with Gazprom."

The move could also be influenced by the upcoming inauguration on May 7 of Russian president-elect Dmitry Medvedev, one analyst said.

"The government is maybe trying to push it through before Medvedev takes over," Weafer said. "So they can start the new president with a clean slate."

Another is that the arrests could be a sign of the infighting amongst the Kremlin elite as Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares to step down.

"It is possible it is a fight of the clans," said Vladimir Pribylovsky from the Panorama research center in Moscow, adding that TNK-BP owners were supported by a security service faction that could be under attack

"The fight is under the carpet," Pribylovsky said, citing British prime minister Winston Churchill, who said that Kremlin politics were like bulldogs having a fight under a carpet -- lots of noise but you only know the winner when one emerges.