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Tue, Apr 03, 2007 - Page 10 News List

Japanese confidence index drops over US slowdown


Confidence among Japanese manufacturers slipped last month for the first time in a year, a closely watched Bank of Japan survey released yesterday showed.

But on a positive note, the quarterly tankan survey, which polls more than 10,000 companies, showed that large businesses plan to boost investment in the year ahead.

The quarterly tankan survey of corporate sentiment showed that a confidence index for large manufacturers slipped to 23 from 25 in the previous survey in December, a two-year high.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast on average that number at 24.


The index measures the percentage of companies reporting that business conditions are better minus those reporting that conditions are worse. The higher the number, the greater the portion of companies that are optimistic.

Among major non-manufacturers, the sentiment index remained unchanged at 22, slightly worse than analysts' forecast for 23.

The results sent the benchmark for Tokyo stocks down 1.5 percent, erasing gains earlier in the session.

Some analysts said the survey suggests that concerns about a slowdown in the US economy -- Japan's biggest export market -- and recent market volatility, has made Japanese executives less confident about the future.


"Given recent US economic conditions and the uncertainty of global stock markets, Japanese companies won't become optimistic about the outlook of the economy any further," said Koichi Haji, chief economist at NLI Research Institute.

The survey also showed that large businesses were planning to increase capital spending in the year that started on Sunday by an average of 2.9 percent, higher than forecasts of a 1.7 percent increase.


Japan's top government spokesman brushed aside any worries about the tankan, noting that sentiment is still relatively upbeat.

"In a broad sense, there was no change to the view that favorable performance in the corporate sector is continuing," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki said.

"There is no change to our basic understanding that moderate economic expansion is continuing," he added.

The tankan is closely watched as an indication of when the Bank of Japan may next raise interest rates.

But the market is not expecting the central bank to raise interest rates anytime soon after it raised the benchmark rate to 0.5 percent in February.

The central bank is likely to be cautious after last week's report on consumer prices fueled worries that the bank has raised been raised rates too quickly.

The countrywide core consumer price index, which excludes volatile food prices, fell 0.1 percent in February from a year earlier, dipping for the first time in 10 months, the government said.

That undermined hopes that Japan has convincingly defeated the spiral of falling prices that had ravaged the economy for years.

Haji, of NLI Research, predicted the BOJ was unlikely to raise rates before October.

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