Southeast Asia's key economies are in for robust growth this year, with Vietnam on track to catch up to its wealthier neighbors but Indonesia hobbled by lingering domestic issues, analysts say.
They say risks of a bird flu pandemic, higher interest rates and volatile oil prices remain but regional economies are better prepared than before to withstand any adverse impact.
Singapore, the region's most advanced economy, is expected to continue last year's strong growth momentum, while the Malaysian and Thai economies are also forecast to be on firm footing.
The Philippines is expected to remain buoyant, thanks to the billions of dollars in remittances by overseas Filipino workers, the analysts said at a forum organized by the Singapore-based Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) last week.
Song Seng Wun, a regional economist with CIMB-GK Research, expects Singapore's economy to expand by seven percent this year and about five percent over the next two years "on the back of sustained regional and global growth."
The forecast for this year is well above the government's growth target of three to five percent for GDP, the total value of all goods and services produced in the country.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (
"We are seeing more broad-based growth, especially within the services-producing sector," Song told the forum of academics, diplomats and business leaders. "After seven years of decline, the construction sector should return to the black from 2006 onwards."
He expects the Philippines to achieve 4.6 to 4.8 percent GDP growth this year, buoyed by foreign worker remittances, which accounted for 11 percent of GDP and 18 percent of current account receipts in the first half of last year.
The country has about 10 million citizens working overseas.
Malaysia's economy should grow five to six percent this year from an expected 5.3 percent expansion last year due to a recovery in external demand and sustained domestic demand, Song said.