Published on Taipei Times
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2005/12/03/2003282842

ECB signals latest interest rate hike won't be repeated


THE GUARDIAN, BRUSSELS
Saturday, Dec 03, 2005, Page 12

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday raised interest rates for the first time in five years. But Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB president, gave a clear signal the bank has no plans for a series of increases.

The ECB's 18-strong governing council, warning of risks to price stability, unanimously agreed to increase rates in the eurozone from a 30-month low of 2 percent to 2.25 percent, seeking to buttress its credibility in the face of political pressure not to make the move.

The ECB takes no votes on monetary policy and acts by consensus, though Trichet indicated that some members wanted a bigger increase, raising rates by a pre-emptive 50 basis points and others sought firmer evidence of economic recovery before agreeing an increase.

The ECB president did not repeat previous remarks about the need for "strong vigilance" about inflationary expectations, preferring to stress that the bank would "closely monitor" the risks to price stability.

As the euro dipped against the US dollar and British pound, the French and German finance ministers, Thierry Breton and Peet Steinbruck, who had both argued against a rate increase, insisted that the moderate tightening of monetary policy would not damage the outlook for growth.

Steinbruck, who saw German unemployment drop below 11 percent last month, with a fall of 25,000 in the number of jobless to 4.53 million, said: "As long as it remains just a quarter-point rise and is not the start of a continuing series then we can cope with it ... I don't believe it will have a big negative impact."

Karl-Heinz Grasser, Austria's finance minister, said the decision "neither helps in the fight against inflation nor favors growth in Europe."

But Joaquin Almunia, EU economic and monetary affairs commissioner, argued that all conditions remained in place for a pick-up in domestic demand.

Pointing to a fragile recovery, Ernest-Antoine Seilliere, president of Unice, the EU business lobby, warned that the moderate rate rise was not a positive signal for growth -- especially if it triggered a stronger euro.

The European Trade Union Congress denounced the decision. "If the ECB wanted to give a warning signal to trade unions on upcoming wage negotiations by increasing its interest rate, this was totally unnecessary.

Trade unions in Europe already understand the need to have wage increases compatible with the objective of price stability," John Monks, ETUC leader, said.

As the German engineering union IG Metall signaled a demand for 4.5-5 percent wage increases, Mr Trichet said the "warranted" rate rise came amid internal forecasts of higher inflation and growth.