"Over the period 1999 to 2003, DVD prices fell by 25 percent and the price of players fell in the US from over US$1,000 to almost nothing," says Strumpf. "At the same time, CD prices went up by 10 percent. Combined DVD and VHS tape sales went up by 500 million, while CD sales fell by 200 million, so a possible explanation is that people were spending on DVDs instead of CDs."
It is clear that more work needs to be done before the market effect of downloading is fully understood, but Strumpf was unsure whether they would be able to conduct further work.
"The problem is getting hold of sales figures. Getting data on file sharing is hard, but it's possible. However, I imagine it's going to be difficult for us to get sales data in the future because of the views of the record industry towards us," Strumpf said.
Prior to Oberholzer-Gee and Strumpf's report, there were no empirical studies based on actual file sharing behaviour, and the music industries in the US and the UK have based their policies on, at best, incomplete research. At worst, the surveys and analyses they quote are misleading and inaccurate.
Yet still the RIAA has sued its customers -- an action Strumpf calls "one of the stupidest things in the world to do." The BPI has stated it is "prepared to go that route if forced."
Some even question whether the fall in sales the RIAA quotes is real, or a product of a creative redefinition of the word "sale." Even if it is real, there is one final fly in the ointment that can't easily be explained away: during the past nine months, CD sales in America have increased by 7 percent, despite continued growth in file sharing.
As Strumpf says: "If file sharing is killing record sales, why are records starting to sell better?"
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