Free trade is losing support in the US, in particular among high-income Americans, as a growing number of professionals feel threatened by job outsourcing to low-wage nations.
A recent poll by a Washington research group found eroding support for the notion of free trade, but the shift was dramatic among those with incomes of more than US$100,000 a year.
The University of Maryland's Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) found that among those in the over US$100,000 bracket, the percentage actively supporting free trade slid from 57 percent in 1999 to 28 percent last month.
These results surprised even the researchers.
"It is rare in any case that any demographic slice drops 20 or 30 points on any issue," said research director Clay Ramsay. "It certainly provides evidence for the theory going around now that job insecurity is creeping up the income scale."
The results show more white-collar Americans joining the blue-collar outcry against globalization and cast a cloud on the ability of the US to remain a leader in free-trade. It also suggests that protectionist talk will be on the rise during the current presidential election campaign.
However, researchers said the poll results show a majority of Americans endorse free trade in principle, even if they believe it is being handled poorly by the US administration.
The survey found 53 percent endorse expanded international trade but are not satisfied with the government's handling of its effects on US jobs, the poor in other nations and the environment.
"Feelings about international trade have gone from lukewarm, to luker," said PIPA director Steven Kull. "Two-thirds say that in principle, they support the reciprocal lowering of trade barriers. It's just that they feel more needs to be done to mitigate the effects on workers and the environment."
Ramsay said this offers clear guidance to political leaders, with a consistent position of Americans in 1999 and today.
"Then and now, nine out of 10 Americans want international trade agreements to include labor standards and environmental provisions," he said. "There is a very strong consensus."
Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the labor-oriented Center for Economic and Policy Research, said however that the trend toward outsourcing of software and engineering jobs to places like India have led to a rethinking of the benefits of free trade.
"Now that international competition is creeping up the occupational ladder, it seems we have a problem that is recognizable by people in high places," Weisbrot said. "We are all protectionists now."
Stephan Richter, president of the Globalist Research Center, said Americans are now facing some of the same issues on globalization that have come up in Europe and elsewhere in the past, notably a loss of jobs to other countries that are more efficient.
"Quite a few people around the world are shocked by statements of conservative economists and liberal politicians saying that free trade is good until it impacts US white-collar jobs," he said.
Richter said the US could adapt to the outsourcing of higher-paid jobs by improving the social safety net along the lines of Europe to keep public support for free trade.
"The US has always argued it is the most flexible society in the world, and this is going to be a severe test of this proposition," he said.
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