No matter how hard Alain Levy, the boss of EMI's much-maligned recorded-music arm, works to turn the business around, the rug keeps being pulled from under his feet.
The global music sales figures released this week underlined the intense pressure the industry is under and the lack of any obvious means of turning the situation around.
According to recording industry body IFPI, rampant piracy and illegal Internet downloads forced global music sales down 7 percent last year and a further 5 percent decline is expected this year.
Many investors fear that outlook is optimistic -- Sony Music has already said it is braced for falls of up to 15 percent.
If anyone was in doubt about how tight cash is at heavily indebted EMI, Thursday's announcement that it would acquire control of the highly attractive Motown back catalogue in stages rather than a one-off hit was greeted with relief by investors.
Levy has made substantial progress since being installed 18 months ago, slashing and burning his way through the excessive cost base EMI built up after years of mismanagement.
Hundreds of underperforming artists have been sacked, over-paid middle managers put on performance-related contracts, while acts such as Norah Jones and Coldplay are making real headway in the crucial US market.
EMI, which was the dog of the music majors two years ago, is starting to look remarkably efficient compared with rivals Universal, Warner, Sony and BMG.
Yet eventually Levy will run out of costs to cut.
The only way EMI can protect shareholder value in a contracting market is by resurrecting previous merger negotiations with either Warner or BMG.
The dire state of the music market and its uncertain outlook may persuade the EU regulators, who opposed EMI's previous merger attempts, to take a more lenient view on consolidation. Investors will be praying they do.
If music sales continue to fall, EMI's 2004 dividend payment will have to be reduced, removing another plank of support from the underperforming shares.
The sales slump could also affect the hugely profitable music publishing division, which depends on CD sales for about 35 percent of its revenues.
No real inroads are being made into the structural issues which have been facing the industry for some time.
A profitable digital distribution platform still looks some way off as illegal Internet downloads continue to steal revenues.
The fight against old-fashioned piracy may have been intensified but has not yet been won.
Music companies are also facing growing competition for consumer cash from mobile-phone firms, games and pay-TV companies.
The five majors of the recorded music world may be allowed to consolidate into four but there is no way regulators will allow the four to become three.



