Concerns are growing that French and German exports to the US will be hit by the transatlantic diplomatic stand-off over Iraq, but the evidence is as yet sparse and often anecdotal.
Businesspeople are anxiously scanning their sales charts to see if US consumers vote with their feet and refuse to buy a sleek Mercedes or a bottle of good vintage Chateauneuf du Pape.
As the politicians in Berlin and Paris defy Washington and insist there is no case for immediate war against Iraq, sympathizers with US President George W. Bush's view of the crisis might opt instead for a Chevrolet or a Californian wine.
German exporters warned this week that Berlin's diplomatic rift with the US over Iraq could mean a 10 percent drop in German exports to the US and shave 0.33 percentage points off the country's economic growth this year.
Such an impact would be considerable for a country which barely escaped recession last year and even without tensions over Iraq expected a mere 1 percent growth rate this year.
Anton Boerner, head of the BGA wholesale and foreign-trade association who gave the warning, said on Thursday he did not expect a full-fledged boycott.
"But there are signs within both the Democrat and Republic parties that they are thinking about `punishing' German and French products," he said in an interview.
"There won't be a call for a boycott but sales people are nervous and nervousness is bad for business. Business is better among friends," Boerner said.
German companies say they have seen no dramatic impact yet.
"Our business in the United States continues to develop very positively," said Eckard Wannieck, spokesman for carmaker BMW AG.
"This could be something to do with the fact we have a factory there. But on the consumer side, for our customers, this does not play a role."
A DaimlerChrysler spokesman said: "There are no indications that this is having any effect on business."
But Ulf Moritzen, fund manager at Nordinvest in Hamburg, said trade barriers of some description could be on the cards.
"We are now getting to a point where the war scenario is not about weapons only but also trade. I think the Americans are willing to put trade barriers on a lot of European products," Moritzen said.
French big business shows sang-froid for the moment.
Directors at French drinks group Pernod Ricard, the world's third-biggest spirits company, said at a press briefing on their 2002 sales on Wednesday that they did not think their products were in danger of a US consumer boycott.
However, they added their confidence stems from the fact that many of their brands are "indigenous," like Seagram's Gin produced in Indiana, or are not associated with France, like its Scotch whiskies and Polish vodkas.
Camembert is, however, unmistakably French, and that is a problem for French Internet cheese seller Marc Refabert.
His in-box has filled up with e-mails from disgruntled US customers this week saying his cheese may be fine, but the diplomacy of his president, Jacques Chirac, smells.
"Because of the current position your government is taking on not supporting the US at this time regarding Iraq, we are not going to support France in any way. ... We are sorry," read one e-mail to the co-founder of www.fromages.com.
Refabert is relaxed, however.
"It's just temporary. They'll come back in two or three months," he said.
RSS